US Equities posted a mixed result on the day. The bad news first… For the first time in 2023, the S&P closed in the red for its fifth consecutive session, continuing its move south after crossing the 200-DMA Friday. Secondly, the Dow was unable to hold on to the 33k level and finished further into the red, only to be outdone by the very-unloved-at-the-moment Russell 2k. And last but certainly not least, the final (sour) cherry on top today came in the early hours when the 10yr yield breached t…

Investors sifted through a sea of red today as equities tumbled for the 4th day in a row, with the S&P (-1.2%) closing below its 200d mvag for the first time since March. The bearish tone taking hold this week has no shortage of culprits… geopolitical tensions, Treasury yields, interest rate concerns… the list goes on. Indices were measured in their march downward this week, but surprised in that losses were felt broadly within major indices (Wednesday notched a >80% down day). The canary in th…

If investors have become numbed to the persistent Fed speaker chatter of the higher for longer message, they did not show it today. Chairman Powell always deserves attention, and the market moves when he spoke today showed via the volatility spikes. After he was done speaking, not much really has changed… “inflation path to be bumpy, yields have tightened financial conditions, strong economy may merit hiking, proceeding carefully” are just some of his comments. The end result is that November i…

It was just two days ago on Monday of this week that we were all highlighting the rarity of a 90% “up” day for S&P breadth in a session. Today is Wednesday (yes, two more days to go..) and we have just had an 84% down day as US equities closed at session lows with all major indexes falling under pressure. Cyclicals heavily underperformed Defensives, TLT ETF hit the lowest levels since 2007, DXY (+.3%) moved higher, Crude (+1.7%) advanced its rally, and Gold (+1.3%) is again in favor as risk-o…

Today was one of those days where a mere glance at the scoreboard would suggest another boring Tuesday in the market. (I stand by my contention Tuesday is the worst day of the week – zero personality.) But you’d be mistaken if the tiny moves in the main indices led one to believe there wasn’t much going on today. We got the 2nd leg of earnings reports from the bank/financials, which broadly read positively. More interestingly, we got another robust retail sales report, and the early returns are…

After last week’s rally was mostly erased on Friday as investors fled to safety for the weekend, the rally resumed today thanks to a combination of factors. Markets tried to move past events in the Middle East given widespread efforts to contain the crisis (though the reverberations and implications will be felt for a long time to come). Instead, they focused on a dovish FT interview by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, anticipation of Powell’s speech on Thursday, reports of easing sanctions in…

Today has left investors with more questions than answers. Stocks had a decent bid to start the day with a fairly unanimous beat from Bank earnings this morning (more below), but investors were left unsettled after JPM’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, issued a warning on the extraordinary issues facing the market today. The economic data revealed favorable import/export prices, but the Michigan sentiment report showed a sharp decline in confidence and caused major indices to come for sale. Further, news tha…

It’s all about the Rates. Rates advanced higher again today and, consequently, Equities snapped their four-day winning streak. Major US indexes held in around flat/up small for the morning, only to fall well lower during the US afternoon following a much weaker than expected 30yr bond auction. Because, well… it’s all about Rates. Today’s 30yr Bond auctioned wide at 4.837% vs the when-issued level @ 4.80% as demand wobbled with a weak bid-to-cover ratio at 2.35 (vs 2.46 previous) and the dea…

Don’t look now, but the US market is on a 4-day winning streak and yes, that includes each of the ‘Big 3.’ Despite a rather unenthusiastic mood for stocks, October has found its footing, even if it remains tenuous. With earnings set to kick off on Friday (we get a dribbling tomorrow), we’ll soon find out if this newborn confidence is justified. For now, at least things have been going the market’s way. After a mild move higher on Monday, the dollar continued its downward trend. Crude and it’s o…

Equities were in reactionary mode today taking direction from FedSpeak, after Perli, Bostic, Waller, and Kashkari took the mic. Initial commentary was dovish (Bostic) and fueled a risk-on tone, pushing markets to the highs of the day. A sharp decline in Treasury yields was supportive of equities as well, as investors turned to traditional haven assets amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. After Waller leaned quite hawkish in his commentary (“it’s not 4% or 3%, it’s 2%….”), indices moved off highs a…