Back to school for me today as we sat down with our Economist Melissa Davies to go through her latest piece on ON RRP and the hedge fund basis trade and what it might mean which featured in the FT too overnight. It’s a fair old distance outside my comfort zone but it appears like it might have far reaching ramifications for all market participants. All depends how the Fed navigate the end of QT, how the Hedge Fund Basis trade works out, what it means treasury demand, liquidity and volatility. S…

“When do people come back?!?!” Cried one client to me today as European Equities remain seemingly stuck in second gear to start 2024 – (though arguably there has been a few stalls and actually in first). I’m sure people are back judging by ‘Out of Office replies’ and Bloomberg Green dots but they are likely assessing and it feels like a large majority are waiting to see how things play out before making any sizeable decisions. We’ve got U.S. CPI tomorrow which is expected to show a pick up in t…

I learnt a tough lesson in parenthood at the weekend as had to book the first flight for my daughter for after she will have turned two! Minus some cheaper taxes it is the same price as a full adult fare, I’m not sure what I was expecting since it is an extra seat but it certainly wasn’t that! A lesson I learnt early in my career in finance was that it’s all about supply and demand and today’s main feature was within the European Bond Market. It was a record breaking day in that regard with at…

Well it wasn’t the ‘real’ start of 2024 that I was hoping for after all. 30+ Upgrades/downgrades around the research departments in Europe showed that teams had pencilled in today as the day where everyone was back and would get the most traction and although the latter was often the case it was probably down to the quiet backdrop that today presented. Volumes were absent from the offset and never looked like getting to any reasonable aggregate level with some regions in Europe (Switzerland) -3…

I had a fairly major knee surgery at the end of November and as I slowly recover and get more mobility on my crutches I realise it has taught me a few lessons including the benefits of slowing down a bit in life and having a little patience. It also feels the market is having a similar approach to the start of 2024, there are quite a lot of things going on, quite a lot of moves but on the whole investors feel comfortable to let this week pass by which does feel quite prudent with 250 sessions o…

Okay right let’s admit it, we’re all completely obsessed with Luke Littler now, are massive Darts fans, know what the Oche is and have been properly impressed with his Double 10 finishes – or maybe it’s just me!? He’s a Manchester United fan but we can forgive him that and I’m sure most are hoping he makes history tonight. Two darts references in two days to start the Daily Snapshot’s for 2024 is probably above the yearly quota so there will be no more of them you’ll be glad to hear and thankfu…

A clean slate for what will likely be a lively year for Equity markets as we navigate inflation, rates, company performance, a raft of very uncertain geopolitical situations and have a number of key elections thrown in for good measure. Today however was a day to get back in the swing of things, adjust to that early alarm, fret about Tax returns and rave about a 16 year old darts player that none of us knew a couple weeks back. Certainly less darts thrown by investors than at Ally Pally and alt…

So there we have it, I estimate 220 or so Daily Snapshot’s for 2023 from the team at Redburn Atlantic and here we are at the last. Firstly we hope they remain useful, insightful and on occasion (when Quicky writes them) entertaining. Secondly, putting them together has been rewarding, mostly entertaining and on very rare occasions quite tedious! I’ve certainly had to get myself clued up on Yield curves, bond auctions, inflation data and all other sources of macro indicators because 2023 has bee…

Here we go, in the famous words of Delia Smith at half time of a Norwich game – ‘Let’s be havin’ you!’ A blockbuster 48 hours awaits us and we spent most of the day patiently impatiently waiting for what Mr Powell and the Fed have to say for next year. A 99% probability of no change in Fed funds rate today (….So you’re saying there is a chance?!) and as well as a Powell press conference, focus will be on new staff economic projections and the ‘dot-plot’ of FOMC members’ views on future level of…

The UK prime minister Rishi Sunak is facing a crucial vote in parliament on the Rwanda bill this evening and with his popularity now as low as Liz Truss (an approval rating of -25.4, according to Conservative Home) the infamous Lettuce which outlasted Truss has, in some parts of social media, been resurrected to challenge the PM’s longevity. The big risk is that with a fairly evenly split Conservative party the bill could be voted down in parliament this evening. Such a defeat (the first of thi…