Bolstered by renewed rate cut expectations after the Powell press conference and the cool payrolls last week, long May Day weekend dinner table conversations seem to have included a few bulls asking – Have Yields peaked?? Or so it seems – as we have hit the ground running with every sector trading higher today in Europe following the strength in the U.S. (all their major averages above their 50dma) as the market is now pricing in two rate cuts this year (US2yr under the 5% potential peak). Ano…

May Day holiday tomorrow, so we got what feels like 2 days in 1 with plenty of volumes, news, and interesting ideas… HSBC kicked it off out in Hong Kong and rallied 4% on numbers as CEO plans his exit, Samsung +2% on strong AI demand, GALP hit record highs on their quarter, Whitbread gained 4% on the buyback and cost cuts (but needs overall trading to improve to get us positive), K+S guided higher mid-morning, and then PLAYTECH rallied 18% the past 2 days yet has us all looking for news to ju…

So we got a little ahead of ourselves.. This may be best illustrated in Commodities, which saw their largest monthly allocation increase since 2006 (plot for the Big Short comes to my mind) – a rather startling reminder of how aggressively underweight some areas of the market remain when investors rush to balance their books (see visuals on the Copper & SXPP Index charts, which should include the caption “fomo”)…. And, with Powell finally throwing in his towel for June rate cuts Tuesday (partia…

Where did everyone go? Easter holidays seem like this quaint, chocolatey long weekend, but considering the U.S. stock market never shuts more than three days, this European ‘four day-er’ is a proper break in the action.. And markets have taken the hint, as risk appetite feels like it’s shot down the rabbit hole already with the month (and year) to date winners being sold. FAANGS -40bps as the worst sector, but A.I. leaders NVDA & SMCI both -2%, growth names like Flutter & Draftkings -7% each,…

I was tasked with dressing, feeding and taking my two young kids for their school play earlier this week, all the while working from home. It seems straightforward but is funny when even a simple (it’s major) thing like my 5 year old refusing to put her clothes on throws off all of my timing. Clothes over food, toothbrush over hairbrush, gotta pick your spots and do the best you can. Today’s market felt a bit similar. Between Feb month end with MSCI rebalances, another cooler inflation read cr…

I was asked today if Bitcoin was a safe haven currency at the moment. Unsure exactly how to answer this one without my mind wondering/wandering around speculative bubbles (and central bank QE policy hedges) in general, I kept reminding myself that understanding when to buy and sell something “safe” can be difficult in any environment, but identifying bubbles (be them tulip bulbs, Japan real estate in the 80’s, Internet stocks, China property, venture capital valuations or NFT’s in late 2021) is…

Some days are for exclamations of fact, let’s get started.. Mega Bullish patterns throughout Asia, US and European equities led by NVIDIA’s (+15.5%) enormous quarter driving tech shares across the board, with perhaps the most notable you-don’t-see-that-everyday occurrence: Japan rallying past their 1989 all-time highs! (hat tip to Tokyo Electron out there). Not to be out done, our Dutch BE Semiconductor rallied 12% (closed only +5%) on the key Hybrid Bonding adoption – the most important drive…

Moving and shaking in portfolio management the past 24hrs. Some rotation out of growth (Nasdaq now 4.2% below its former all-time high), and into year-to-date underperformers including staples led by Walmart numbers yesterday and into China exposed names ahead of the big NVDA news tonight. With most already involved in large cap tech (over half of the GVIP ETF is weighted in TMT), investors are rightfully anxious of the momentum trade showing any signs of unwinding (and really, a pull-back wit…

A simple search of the top trending topics in the world right now include gorilla mind, blinkit, gellyball, padel rackets, numerade, malatang, magnacut, figma fonts, and pickleball shoes.. As a racquet sports enthusiast I have heard of two of these items. As well, when commentating on markets, a few things also trending for this year include the S&P500, Nasdaq composite, momentum trades, the Stoxx 600, DAX & CAC indices to name a few. They have all achieved bullish price trends with new highs c…

We got an electric drum set for my two kids. Expectations just a little above the ocean floor was a nice setup when my son (7) busted out a John Bonham riff the other night that brought me straight back to my 80’s childhood. Did it sound great, definitely not – but it sure blew me away. As we know, contentment results from situations or outcomes that exceed our expectations.. So with President’s day holiday keeping the stock & bond markets shut in the US, very few earnings (gets going again tom…