Another sort of dull day today (SXXP -0.05%) with the benefit that we had some earnings to distract us in the morning. EU equities all trading pretty mixed today with Banks leading the way and Utilities lagging. Indices mostly in the red with FTSE 100 the clear underperformer (-0.6%). Volumes seem to be better than yesterday but in line with the last 20 days (-2% vs 20d AVAT). Bitcoin definitely one I enjoy watching, had its biggest drop since March yesterday but already up +12% from yesterday’s low – the uptrend clearly remains. Support level at $28000 or even its 50dma at 24213 (33800 last).

We started the week on a less positive tone. Virus news not helping the sentiment for sure with UK dominating the headlines. Number of cases and deaths continue to hit records and talks over tightening restrictions began over the weekend. European indices are all trading down although volumes suggest it is more of a pause for breath than anything else (vols down -28% vs the last 20 days). Defensives leading the way today and we are seeing Growth outperforming Value (STGP down -0.8% and STVP down -1.2%). Indices all holding their key levels for now, we are watching the EuroStoxx 50. Resistance at 3867, short term support ta 3400.

While people in Madrid are enjoying a historic snowfall, we are all freezing and watching the clouds here in London. I have been checking the weather forecast pretty much every day since Christmas but I must admit I have given up now.

On the positive side though, markets are heading for a strong first week of the year. In the US, we had new price highs from the S&P, SML, RTY, MID, CCMP, NDX, SOX and a Dow Theory Buy signal (Dow & TRAN both at new highs) overnight – ES1 currently up +0.4%. In Asia, China a bit weak this morning but we saw the Topix and Japanese small caps both breaking their respective highs from 2018. Here in Europe, more highs by some indices – DAX and OMX both made all-time highs earlier. FTSE only one trading down (-0.1%) but still up +6% so far this week.

After a pretty mixed day yesterday, today’s session has felt better somehow. Not that anything has changed on the virus front but the OPEC formal release coupled up with the Georgia results becoming clearer have fuelled investors with a positive sentiment. The 10-year yield is above 1% for the first time since March, prompting banks to pop since the open (SX7P up 4.4%) and defensives to underperform. The only thing I would point out though is volumes (up 35% vs the last 20 days). Yes, encouraging for conviction but strangely it doesn’t feel as busy as it looks. Maybe more futures / quant driven?

With Boris Johnson announcing “lockdown #3” last night, today was always going to be an interesting day. Looks like the surging covid cases have won the race (for now!) and we need to wait for the rollout of vaccines to catch up a bit. The government’s plan is to try to vaccinate at least 13m people before they can consider easing restrictions so we should see how that goes. Bear in mind only 1m people have received the first jab so far…all sounding very gloomy really.

Happy New Year all – hope you had a lovely time and managed to get some time off. I’m sure all of us are happy to leave 2020 behind and are looking forward to what 2021 has to bring us. Some positive and negative dynamics to consider, as we monitor the race between the accelerated spread of the new covid strain vs the logistical rollout of stock piled vaccines. Overall though I have decided to focus on the positives for now (and markets seem to be doing the same? SXXP +1.5%). We had the AZN/Oxford vaccine rollout this morning and looking ahead, airlines are already filling our inboxes with marketing spam. So far I’ve booked some bargain flights for August so make sure you don’t miss out!

I was trying to delay writing the last 2:15 but I think it is about time. Last Central Banks’ meetings, checked. Last Redburn Review of the year, published. Last morning call with our analysts and sales team, done. Brexit, unfortunately still in progress and “big differences remain”, next US stimulus package, also in progress…

Another sort of hopeful morning with nearly all indices and sectors trading in the green for most of the session (note the CAC and IBEX recently turned to trade in the red). Autos leading the way once again (up +6% so far this week) while Banks currently one of the three sectors in the red (SXAP -0.7%). Index wise, DAX definitely the winner (PMI data helping the case) and currently trading above the Sep high of 13460 (13533 last). Next resistance at 13795/13800 area (Feb’s all-time high). Volumes all pretty mixed but overall +28% higher than yesterday. More noise on the Brexit front today but the focus moves to the Fed this afternoon. Expectations for a Christmas gift have certainly decreased but hopefully investors get a surprise.   

A bit of a dull day today (SXXP +0.1%) with both volumes and indices trading pretty mixed across the board. The lack of progress on the Brexit  / US stimulus front coupled up with new lockdowns have left investors in a stand-still mood. Sectors all very mixed as well with Autos and Defensives leading the way and Utilities and Healthcare the laggards. Value having a better day vs Growth again today with STVP up +0.4% and STGP down +0.03%

With the EU and UK extending Brexit talks once again, the waiting game was always going to be back. Boris Johnson and Ursula von del Leyen both have said they are ready to go “an extra mile” to reach a deal so let’s see what the next update turns out to be. Markets signalling some sort of hope today with all EU indices trading well in the green (SXXP +1%). FTSE 100 underperforming its peers but still holding support (6514 / 6463). Keep an eye on it though – Matt Hancock is set to confirm whether London will go into Tier 3 at 3:30 GMT. Volumes not showing much conviction though with EU indices all trading down -16% vs Friday and -20% vs the last 20 days. Note we have the last quad witching of the year on Friday so hopefully things pick up as the week progresses.