Here we go again…Looks like the scallops and the chocolate waffle dessert wasn’t enough last night as Brexit talks carry on until Sunday! European indices were all trading pretty steady all morning up until the ECB announcement. They ticked lower since then and slipped further as the press conference started. Key levels our charts team are watching remain 13460 resistance on the DAX (13238 last) and 20 on VIX (that’s its support but resistance for “sentiment”). Volumes all mixed but overall 17% lower vs the last 30 days.

A bit of a waiting game today as we all await any official update/statement on Brexit talks. Clearly there wasn’t much progress made during the weekend and headlines today have been all quite bearish. Our economist (Clemmie Elwes) thinks the most likely outcome of the von der Leyen-Johnson call will be “negotiations to continue” but we should see…at this point, we don’t expect talks to go significantly either way.

For what I would say was a pretty passive week (SXXP set to finish the week down -0.1%, vols down -13% vs 20d AVAT), at least we have everything coming up together now. Main catalyst clearly Brexit and despite a step backwards overnight, up until now, 2/3 headlines have been positive. Apparently a deal is expected by the end of the weekend so fingers crossed for that – next week could be fun if that materialises. Sterling a little bit confused about it all, GBP/EUR jumped +0.4% to celebrate the headlines but retracted doing so pretty quickly. Same for equities with the SXXP having a similar move (up +0.3, then down -0.3%). FTSE 100 actually had a rather muted reaction although it is finally trading above 6511 (6526 last). Keep an eye on it, next target at 7000.

Have you started planning your summer holiday for next year?

Leaving Brexit aside for a moment (which I’m sure we are all fed up with at this point), we received good news this morning as the UK approved Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. God knows how the allocation process will be but for now, at least 40m doses are set to arrive in stages (enough for c.20m people, around 30% of UK population). Markets clearly already celebrated enough vaccine news in November but feels like a major achievement for sure.

The countdown has officially started! We have 25 days left for Christmas and I’m not sure about you but I can’t wait to open my advent calendar this evening. I usually eat two in a row when I can’t hold myself but I will try my best this year.

We started the month on a positive tone with all EU indices and most sectors in the green. Looks like equities are ready to hold onto November’s gains so fingers crossed for a strong end of 2020. History tells us that December is one of the best months of the year for most equity indices so let’s see how the month evolves (see  chart below). Volumes actually not too bad today (+20% vs yesterday) – Banks probably the highlight with SX7P vols up +15% vs the last 30 days. The sector is currently the second best performer (up +2%) while Healthcare is not getting much love from investors (down -0.3%). Oils also amongst the winners (although currently ignoring OPEC’s news). Today’s meeting was delayed until Thursday so ministers could have more time to come up to an agreement, sector up +1.6%.

34803 QUOTE OF THE DAY “None of us, I suspect, enjoys navigating the crowds, and none would relish that when social distancing is so important to controlling the virus.” Housing Secretary (Robert Jenrick) as shops in England will be allowed to open 24/7 during the Christmas period KEY INDEX MOVES   Stoxx50 FTSE DAX IBEX […]

Have you done your Black Friday shopping? With some investors recovering from their thanksgiving dinner overnight, today has been another slow trading day. The morning was a bit more active but volumes have been drying up as the session progresses. The IBEX is pretty much the only index seeing decent vols although most driven by the Sabadell-BBVA news (SAB SM vols up +200% vs 30d AVAT). Growth and Value similar to the last couple of days with Growth outperforming but not by much this time (STGP +0.3% vs STVP +0.1%).

Happy Thanksgiving all! A bit of a pause for breath today with lower volumes across the board (down -30% vs the last 30 days). European indices are all trading between -0.5%/+0.1% but still nicely above their respective key levels. Spain the main highlight for us this week. The IBEX made a new 8m high yesterday and despite underperforming today, it’s been above 8000 (key support) pretty much all week (8114 last). Sectors similar vs yesterday with defensives outperforming cyclicals for the second day in a row. Growth outperforming Value again today (STGP +0.4%, STVP -0.7%).

After a strong day for all markets yesterday, today’s session has been more mixed. Asia ticked higher early doors but gave up most of the gains into the close this morning. Europe not too dissimilar with all indices popping at the open but ticking lower shortly after. Nothing alarming though, some have recovered since (FTSE MIB +0.7) and the reality is that they are all still trading above the key levels. IBEX above 8000, EuroStoxx50 bang on 3500 and FTSEMIB above 22000. FTSE 100 the one lagging (mainly financials putting the pressure), key level to watch at 6500. US futures currently flat (ES1 -0.06%) – will be interesting to see how their session goes.

More green on the screen as optimism was boosted overnight. Donald Trump seems to have finally accepted that a formal transition to Joe Biden must begin and news over Janet Yellen (to be picked as Treasury Secretary) were welcomed across all regions. If the news does materialise, she will not only be the first women in such a position but investors are hoping that she will work more effectively with the Central Bank to help the economy.