I came back from my two weeker this morning and I’m still going through my emails. I definitely missed a lot of action (FTSE closed at 5910 before I left, 6332.77 last. SXXP closed at 366.40 back then, 389.74 last) but hopefully we have a bit more of that in the upcoming weeks. History tells us that the last 6-8 weeks of the year are usually strong so fingers crossed for a good end of the year – the SXXP is up +14% this month so looks like we are on the right track!

After a fascinating week for markets, a well-deserved weekend is finally around the corner. I won’t even get into detail on the elections front (not much progress has been made) but in summary votes are still being counted, Biden getting closer to the White House and Trump moaning every day more. Hopefully we get more clarity throughout the weekend/next week so we can all move on from there.

Despite a busy morning of earnings, today’s session has been definitely quieter. Feels like the excitement over the elections is starting to fade and we are all in a bit of a “sit and wait” mode. Volumes understandably lower than yesterday but remain healthy vs the last 20 days. Biden getting closer to the victory but we all know that the elections are far from over. Trump campaign filed a Lawsuit in the state of Georgia and apparently his fans gathered (some armed) outside vote counting centres – wow, not even in Colombia you see that!

What a roller coaster – a pretty messy but fascinating one!

After a long night for those (including myself) who woke up a couple of times to check on the elections, the outcome wasn’t the best. As feared yesterday, the winner remains unclear and worse than that, looks like we won’t even know the final result for another couple of days. Shocking isn’t it? For now all we can do is wait and hope for the pending states to count the votes quickly! Trump already talking about fraud though so if Biden wins in the end, he won’t have an easy ride, especially with a Republican Senate. Our Economist Clemmie Elwes is all over it so shout if you would like to have a quick chat with her.

The Big Day has finally arrived! After a brutal few weeks of benign volumes it really does feel that investors are starting to get involved. Whether it’s Biden or Trump, there is an overarching sense that clarity is what people really want. Some scenarios suggest that it could be contested and close, which will inevitably end in protracted disputes. Fingers crossed it’s a decisive victory, waking up to more uncertainty isn’t going to be helpful!

Tik Tok, Tik Tok – clock is ticking

After a pretty hectic end of October last week, we kicked off November on a better tone. All EU sectors and indices are trading well in the green (SXXP +1.5%) with the caveat of volumes not reflecting much conviction to the move (EU indices currently trading -16% below their 5d AVAT). The reality is that today was always going to be quiet ahead of the big day tomorrow. Polls over the weekend suggest that Joe Biden is still in the lead but pointed out that some races are still pretty close.

After a couple of turbulent days, we are set to finish the week on a quieter note. Investors are sensibly taking a bit of a pause for breath ahead of what will be a chaotic November and we’re finishing the month with lower volumes across the board. Most indices within 30 bps of yesterday. That means we’ve had a rough week overall – the SXXP  -5.7% over the week, DAX -8.6%, CAC -6.7% and IBEX -6.7%. The UK less bad than its peers for once, “only” down -4.7%.

Another dreadful day for markets today as support levels continue to be tested. The SX5E breaking 3054 (June lows) earlier and the psychological support of 3000 also gone so we are now looking at the levels from mid-May (2700, 2963 last). France not reacting well to the news that they might enter into a strict 1-month lockdown. The CAC slipped below its major support of 4666 – next level to watch at 4200. VIX another worrying one to watch as it keeps going up – up +14% today, next resistance at 40 (37.9 last). The DAX (up until a second ago) and the IBEX behaving better than its peers, both holding 11600 and 6421 respectively (DAX just broke it though, 11588 last!!).

We certainly started the week on the wrong foot. US stimulus pack – talks ongoing but more people coming to the conclusion that there won’t be one before the elections. Brexit – talks extended but still uncertain. Virus restrictions – Spain announced a national night-time curfew and Italy tightened its restrictions once again. Interesting one from the UK though, this time talking about decreasing the quarantine time (for those who test positive) to 7-10 days. With little to cheer about, EU equities are mostly in the red today. All indices are trading down with the DAX underperforming its peers by far (made a new 2m rel vs SXXE earlier ). SAP not helping the index much after a torrid set of results this morning (full details on movers section above).

After a less disastrous debate overnight and another stampede of beat headlines this morning, today couldn’t go any other way. EU equities ticked higher since the open and feels like they are pretty firm to stay there. Elsewhere we had the UK signing a trade deal with Japan – hurray! Obviously Brexit the important one, and we’ve had Reuters hinting at a French compromise on fisheries, sending sterling higher. FTSE 100 the only index trading well above its AVATs (drive by financials), trading +40% vs 20d AVAT.