I feel like today could have easily been a bank holiday! 35 degrees out there, the SXXP currently +0.05% for the day and just like Tuesday, all EU indices have been swinging between flat and -/+0.5% throughout the session (Spain the only exception, currently down -0.8%). Volumes dead across the board (~20% below the last 20 days) hence looks like I’m not the only one ready for the weekend.

So before I get to go on holiday with them, my boyfriend’s parents insisted we both get Covid tests. Ouch. They are only for the strong. Not only was it incredibly unpleasant for my nose, but also my wallet. 140 euros each! Think how many bottles of Ribera del Duero you can buy with that?!? The pain of that made worse by seeing Eurofins share price up +15% today after their strong results. No need to wonder why – the queues were out of the door in Madrid for their test. Real world meets share prices in action!

Tick tock, tick tock. I’m going on holiday on Friday and I’m not sure if it’s just me but this week has been slow, very slow (and we are only half way there!). A lot of the themes remain the same and although it seems like the buy switch has flicked back on (cyclicals back outperforming and all EU indices up), volumes remain very August like. A lack of activity then but still some big milestones being made. The S&P made a 5 month high overnight and one that caught my attention was “Nasdaq underperformed but made another all-time high” haha – what odd times.

When are tech stocks going to stop?! We saw the Nasdaq Composite make another all-time high overnight and interestingly, this time it was not only the big cap tech stocks going up. The Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight Index also made a new all-time high and the Russell Microcap growth index made a 12m price high. Asia followed with a session in the green this morning but European equities are having quite a volatile session. All Indices ticked higher at the open but have been swinging between +/- 0.5% since then. Volumes very mixed with some indices trading above their AVATs, some below. On the desk we are clearly better to buy today but strangely it doesn’t feel as busy as it looks.

So we start August very much in the same way as we finished July. Banks earnings disappointing, tech saving the market and macro data going to dictate how we get along in what could be a bumpy month. Economic data finally bringing some hope to the table after having had disappointing GDP data last week. We had Eurozone PMI data out this morning and it beat estimates across the board.  Spanish 53.5 (vs cons 52.3), Italian 51.9 (vs 51.2), French 52.4 (vs 52.0) and German 51.0 (vs 50.0) –  Eurozone 51.8 (vs 51.1). The only exception was the UK with only a minor miss (53.3 vs 53.6). Worth pointing out (and slightly concerning) that the manufacturing employment keeps falling. Companies continue to operate below capacity and nearly all countries reported job cuts in the sector. We have Services and Composite PMIs out on Wednesday so let’s see if the data beats estimates as well.

Quieter day today as the market tries to figure out what to do after those big tech beats overnight. Thank god for those or we would be seeing another sea of red today! One incredible stat that our charts team pointed out is Apple’s cash pile is now big enough to be the 29th biggest stock in the S&P 500! The FTSE and the IBEX have been testing their support levels throughout the morning (6000 and 7000 respectively) so let’s see if they manage to close above. Vols pretty poor across the board (despite being month end) but it will be interesting to see what happens once the US opens. Nasdaq will undoubtedly be in the spotlight – a down day today would be a worry short term.

A deluge of earnings, a wave of beats but a sea of red today as macro concerns dominate. Spanish inflation set the tone as July harmonised MoM CPI decreased to -1.6% (vs est -1% and +0.4% previously). Our economist noting this suggests that in spite of ECB efforts and the EU Recovery Fund, the fundamentals of the euro structure mean outright deflation taking hold in the Eurozone periphery is a very real risk. Germany GDP data out shortly after and it didn’t help much (-10.1% QoQ). Note that Germany is not even particularly tied to discretionary services (imagine how other economies will do). Elsewhere we had EZ economic sentiment moving in the right direction this month but we continue to think that the real issue is the consumer side of things (especially unemployment). Over in the US, Initial jobless claims rose for a second week (1434k vs 1416k previously). GDP data not good either as the economy contracted -32.9% YoY (biggest drop on record). Imagine when unemployment numbers start to really go up.

A much more lively day after having had a couple of slow days. Earnings the obvious driver but our analysts also bombarding us with their previews for upcoming results (please shout if you are looking for one specifically).  Volumes also more encouraging with EU indices trading +17% above their 1day AVAT. Across the pond, Facebook, Amazon, Apple and Google all due to report tomorrow so investors will definitely have their eyes on the sector (including Microsoft – the 5 stocks now account for 22% of S&P 500 market cap). We also have the FOMC announcing its rate decision at 19:00 BST and as history tells us, FOMC days are usually up days. Powell’s record is not as clear as Bernanke’s and Yellen’s so let’s see how today’s session ends. Probably mixed once again…ES1 currently +0.2%, VGA -0.2%.

A calmer day after the last couple of sessions. EU equities opening solidly but drifting lower as the session progressed. Worries over the virus obviously still at the back of investors’ minds and despite having a morning full of earnings, it doesn’t feel as busy as it should. We are seeing lower volumes across the board and all indices are still trading below their 20d AVATs. Even gold is (finally) having a down day.

Not a great start to the week after hearing the new EU travel restrictions. News over the weekend confirmed that the UK has imposed a 14-day quarantine from those coming from Spain (amid a surge of covid cases in the country). This has probably ruined some holiday plans and we would expect, worries over a second wave of the virus in Europe are back on the table. US/China tensions also not contributing to the cause as unsurprisingly they continue to escalate. Aside from that, we have some exciting days ahead so let’s see what this week’s earnings have to bring us.