A bit of Tam o’ Shanter, To a Mouse and of course the Address to a Haggis is on the cards tonight and for those that do not know what I am talking about – shame on you. It is of course Burns night and although you’d rather not know goes in a haggis it is delicious. My Dry January is still going strong and I have yet to see a non-alcoholic whisky and I expect that is for good reason.
Today was a day that I was very tempted to try out this ChatGPT malarky and see what the fuss was about. ‘Please write a little anecdote followed by a summary of what happened in European Equity markets’. Given how dull today was I think even it may have struggled but I was put off the idea by a 22 year old university student in the U.S., Edward Tian who has fought back against the software that has become so popular in recent weeks by creating his own app GPTzero which uses ChatGPT against itself to identify whether AI has been involved in creating text and singles out the fraudsters.
Does a juice diet still count if you polish off a bag of Walkers Salt & Vinegar crisps when no one is looking? Asking for a friend, because I’m obviously sticking to this strict diet but there were moments today when it felt like I was running out of energy and the market reflected this too. The Stoxx 600 opened lower and drifted throughout the day to close down -1.55%, the worst day of the year thus far. There wasn’t really anything new out today that caused this move lower, instead it felt like (for the first time in a while it must be said) we looked to the U.S. for guidance, and followed their move after we left.
After what could be called a slightly indulgent few days filled with steaks whilst trying to be on some sort of health kick I’ve decided to bite the bullet and do the juice diet for a couple of days. Watch out, by tomorrow’s Snapshot there is a high chance it has various grumpy tones throughout as I do suffer the occasional ‘hangry’ bout. But there isn’t much to be grumpy about is there? The Stoxx 600 closed up 24bps and Europe has been down just twice now in the first 13 sessions of the year. 8 of those up days have yielded less than a 1% gain but little by little we are nudging higher and there was a slight sense today that nothing could de-rail this market, which probably means something will try to.
Obviously having used the comparison between Flat Iron and Hawksmoor I had to do the right thing and test out the latter with a client who just so happened to attend our Midcap conference today and the early feedback was some healthy discussions as we would expect and some relief in the private space that some of the high multiple funding rounds were over and some sense is now back in the market. Luckily I was back at my desk just in time to see the main catalyst of the day – news that ECB officials are pondering a 25bp hike as soon as March which caught plenty off-guard and helped the Stoxx 600 gain 40bps on the day.
I haven’t been to Flat Iron for a while but I will certainly be visiting more frequently – 2 steaks, sides and sauces all came in under £50 and in these peak inflation times, that is a winner in my books. Yes it’s not your 500g wagyu from Hawksmoor but it certainly did the job. A* for customer service too which you just don’t see very often; during a clean out I found two £20 gift voucher coins from 2017 and cheekily asked if they still accepted them. Despite now being 6 years out of date they said – ‘why not’ and took it off the bill.
12 days into ‘Dry January’ and I have to say I don’t feel a whole lot better. I am certainly sleeping much better but that hasn’t gone down too well in the Morrison household as I sleep through some middle-of-the-night cries from the little one. The deep sleep comes in handy when the market throws you all kinds of curve balls on a day like today but even then it’s hard to keep up. Admit it, we all become inflation experts on U.S. CPI day. Will it, wont it, how high, how low….we never know but it does provide something to talk about in the lead up to the number.
A couple of new readers on the distribution list today after a client meeting this morning and what a day they’ve picked to read my first Snapshot. A bit of added pressure and not a huge amount to say with the market still in wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow’s CPI. If there was anything to flag it would be how robust the retail prints have been so far this year. JD Sports (+6%) the standout today but good a good update too from Topps Tiles helping the narrative that the UK consumer is resilient.
Time to look forward and not back was the reminder I got this morning in Pret as I was told I’d have to wait until December before I can get my hands on a cheeky gingerbread latte again. Not sure it finds itself in the the ‘January health kick bucket’ so maybe they’re doing me a favour but back to the boring flat white with that extra shot to give me a kick in the right direction. A tussle over the last Redburn coffee mug and a healthy queue for lunch showing that the City is back in full force and it feels only a time before the tectonic plates shift once again.
“You’ve had a Five-Kilo-Christmas” said a wise (if slightly too honest) old head as he saw me squeezed uncomfortably into my suit for the first time this year and my goodness he’s not wrong. Easy and fun to put that weight on, tougher and less fun to take it off. But that’s what January’s for isn’t it. The month-long equivalent of a Monday morning. Head down and get on with it and lets focus on markets which right now are starting to look a little on the greedy side too.