The UK prime minister Rishi Sunak is facing a crucial vote in parliament on the Rwanda bill this evening and with his popularity now as low as Liz Truss (an approval rating of -25.4, according to Conservative Home) the infamous Lettuce which outlasted Truss has, in some parts of social media, been resurrected to challenge the PM’s longevity. The big risk is that with a fairly evenly split Conservative party the bill could be voted down in parliament this evening. Such a defeat (the first of thi…

The two week countdown to Christmas is on. You can almost hear the winding down of gears. Bloomberg green dots increasingly turning to red from midday, investors having a look at portfolios and judging whether to make any last minute changes and a frantic rush to find Christmas presents. I certainly know which one is my biggest problem in that list! There will still be liquidity this week though (in every sense) and while markets made a tepid start there are some possible fireworks on the hori…

It’s Christmas Jumper day so it’s always an awkward moment when you compliment someone on their Christmas jumper then realise they aren’t partaking in the event and their wardrobe is just a bit more festive than most. A few very good showings today in the Redburn Atlantic office and I particularly liked Nick Glydon’s which came with jingling bells so I knew when he was close. Keeping Nick Glydon and the charts team close is very important at this time of year when there is a bit of a lull in co…

Christmas is coming and in a clear sign that we’re in a bull market once again, the £395 pound ‘Ultimate Father Christmas Hat’ is completely sold out. Santa must be getting a good deposit rate at the Royal Bank of Lapland! Today was another day where there weren’t too many noticeable parts moving but the path of least resistance was noticeably back higher once again. The Stoxx 600 closed up 60bps with a broad based rally with a number of indices in Europe (Spain, Italy, Germany) still at new al…

I’m not much of a wordsmith but I was surprised that I had never heard the Oxford University Press word of the year used in context. The word is ‘Rizz’ an apparent abbreviation of Charisma and a colloquial word defined as style, charm, or attractiveness (not to be confused with Rizo aka Phil Risley our Algorithmic trading guru though stylish and charming he is). Maybe that is me confined to the Millennial bucket forever when this is clearly a Gen Z world we’re all living in. I’m probably using…

Don’t take our weekends from us…. A broadening out of the rally on the surface is good, allows for more companies to share in the higher stock prices, and we are seeing it with the Russell 2k taking the reins from the Nasdaq & SPX (up 4.7% in 2 days is the second best relative performance this year) which seems reasonable. Unless you are of the mind that seasonality rules, and the Mag7 will/should not go down the last part of this 4th quarter. I just wonder how this market will respond to a li…

Rebalances, Rotations, Rolling stones and all… The S&P hasn’t had a daily move in either direction of more than half a percent for 6 days now, so let’s take a closer look under the hood….. Markets continue to rotate in the direction that the peak in yields is behind us – with the most obvious leader being US tech marking all-time high this week – but under the surface in Europe it’s very interesting to follow the flows.. We are seeing (and we would agree with, in this environment), a strong bia…

Well that happened fast… It has been so ingrained in us that inflation is the root of all evil and that central banks will do as much as they can to keep it from overgrowing, and yet, we wake up today with significantly cooler prices for the month in Australia (4.9% CPI vs. 5.2% expected), in Spain (3.2% against consensus rise to 3.7%), the UK November BRC shop price index falling to 4.3% from 5.2% in Oct, and most exciting Germany (CPI drops from 3.0% to 2.3% in Nov, vs 2.6% exp and some regio…

We all need leadership.. 7 Mega-tech companies have proven very reliable, carrying Nasdaq to hefty 10.8% gains mtd – and with yields making fresh lows as I type/send this and the US$ on 10 week lows, we have reasons to believe… Here in Europe, we depend more significantly on China to drive our shares, but with the China Exposed Basket only 1% above its recent November relative LOW – a breakdown of trust may soon be confirmed (we are looking squarely at 12m relative lows from Burberry, Kering,…

I’m going to guess that I’m not the only one who has a Sunday-Evening-Process. All about setting yourself for the week ahead of course and I find a routine helps put me on the right path mentally. My S.E.P involves watching my youngest at her swimming training before we go home for baked beans on toast, a pint of ice cold milk and an hour reading the Sunday Times (me not her). The News section until it gets too depressing into a bit of Sport then a quick rifle through all the Homes I’d buy if I…