For those that are traveling on their way to long weekend plans, let it be known that we have closed above 4200 on the S&P! And given that the 2 stars of the show driving markets higher are 1.) AI-fueled earnings (MRVL + 32%)/ BigTech updraft and 2.) hopes for an imminent handshake on the debt ceiling into the long weekend, I thought I would blend the two and ask ChatGPT how to solve the limit impasse. The answer provided 6 possible solutions which included: raise the debt ceiling, reduce s…

It’s a treadmill run kind of training trading day. The work was put in, we broke a sweat in reaction to a few headlines, but no actual distance was covered. Aside from the momentary blip lower in the first hour of trading on fake news via an AI-generated image and accompanying news of an explosion at the Pentagon that was quickly debunked… The S&P struggled and again failed to secure a close above 4200 as lawmakers tweet over the debt ceiling debate and Fed speakers chime in with their rate p…

Two steps forward, one step back. After an impressive rally over the past 2 sessions, we have closed the week out by retreating marginally lower and ending just shy of the key 4200 level on the S&P. The index is +1.65% WoW and ~+9% YTD which still lags that of its global peers and is less than half of its Nasdaq peer’s gains. While we have spent plenty of time and effort climbing the wall of worry, it was the worry that got the better of the market today. The largest contributing factor came…

The market is in a delicate position, and there is no smoking gun or white knight that can grace the airwaves in one afternoon and sweep us to the promise land overnight. I say this also with the recognition that the S&P is +6.5% YTD and the Nasdaq +15%. However, this is not a straight-line-up market and we are imbedded within a slow, gradual, and arduous process whereby we are navigating our way out of exceptionally high inflation that is the result of a very prolonged period of zero interest…

Does it ever feel like we’ve been here before? Well, spoiler alert- we have! Just 2 days ago, in fact, and a few times earlier this month, and back in Feb, and… While recessionary worries, debt ceiling concerns, and a faltering FRC (+8.8%) have overshadowed an earnings season kicking into full gear, don’t blink because TECH has come to save the day! For today, anyhow. and we’ll see about tomorrow. The terrible-breadth-80%-double-down-days we just endured are now in the rear-view mirror, and…

US markets giving way higher after oscillating in a narrow range in typical, muted Monday trading. We ultimately ended in the positive for all major indices in a tight pack up roughly 30bps between the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq, but it was the small caps that were the true winner with Russell2k up over +1%. While there does not seem to be a real consensus around what the catalyst was for the rally higher in Equities in the final two hours of trading, we could look at Treasury yields and the fact th…

Markets finishing the week in the red today with a bit of a limp to the finish as we quickly begin to run out of steam towards the higher end of the range. Week-over-week we are up 80bps and YTD +7.77% on the S&P, for the Nasdaq +29bps WoW and +15.8% YTD, and for the Dow +1.2% WoW and 2.2% YTD. With recession concerns and/or rate hike path uncertainty [plus a side of banking crisis reverberations]- the incremental data points from the macro don’t seem to be incentive enough to push us higher…

US markets started out under water and proved to be quite buoyant on the day as they gradually wandered higher until the S&P finally closed above ground in the final minute(s) in largely eventless Easter Monday trading. The Russell2k outperformed the Dow, the Dow outperformed the S&P, and the S&P outperformed the Nasdaq (the only index to close *barely in the red). Volumes remained depressed, as to be expected, and both breadth and performance were mixed with 69% of S&P pointing higher and th…

The picture of uncertainty –> S&P: Up-Down-Flat-Up. Dow: Up-Drift-Hold-Up. Nasdaq: Down, hold, (failed) attempt to rally. Markets were mixed, struggling to find clear direction today and not just because it’s the first day of Q2 following a lovely weekend, or because this week is a shortened holiday week. Today’s market response feels apropos given the increasing number of respective balls we are juggling lately. Ruling the headlines today was OPEC+ surprise decision to cut production despite…

A relatively quiet Monday in US trading after a relatively positive weekend led markets to float relatively higher despite fading into the close. It started with First Citizens (FCNCA +53.7%) striking a deal to absorb SVB loans + deposits at a 23% discount out of the FDIC receivership, which now puts them in the top 15 lenders in the US with a $200b in assets… Then adding FRC (up as much as +36% in premkt trading, eventually closing +11.8%) was boosted higher on reports that US authorities may…