The last two trading days have been a tale of different tapes due to investor responses from earnings and economics. Yesterday, Meta guidance and GDP/ quarterly PCE data provided the negative impetus for a red tape. Today Alphabet and Google, along with a somewhat inline monthly PCE print, fed a positive reversal. Net result, indexes/ sectors made it through a busy week and with a gain (S&P 500 +1.02%). With the next FOMC meeting on Wednesday, investors are not expecting much from Chairman Powe…

GDP threw a wrench in the works for both investors and the Fed. As if inflation wasn’t difficult enough to tame, is this market now contending with an economy that’s slowing? The dreaded S-word (stagflation) was thrown around as the Q1 reading introduced the perfect storm of weak growth, sticky inflation, and a tight labor market. But equities shrugged off early losses to close modestly in the red and there’s an argument to be made that April’s slide could be chocked up to a healthy reset of in…

Ever try drinking out of a firehose? Chances are you haven’t but if you had, your experience would likely mirror trying to wrap your head around the deluge of earnings that hit today. Before one was barely nestled in their seat, it was as if Vin Diesel pumped out another movie, F&F, Earnings Avalanche. And tomorrow is set to bring another heavy dose. With the US benchmark having its best 2-day effort in some time, this afforded investors to take a step back and assess the onslaught of corporate…

What 6-day losing streak?! Investors got even more hopeful about a V-shaped recovery today as equities moved well into the green for a second day running. The S&P closed +1.2% and the Nasdaq closed +1.6%, while treasuries were mixed along the curve. The DXY saw 37bps of weakness and Brent rebounded 1.7%, thanks to waning geopolitical concerns. A slew of earnings and dovish economic data gave equities the strength to rally ahead of Tesla’s report post the close, the first of the Mag 7. Flash PM…

Last week was Geopolitics and the Fed, this week a sizable slate of earnings, (40% of the SPX to be exact, four of the Mag7) and pertinent Econ Data (PCE and GDP). On the earnings front investors have eyes on Tesla’s numbers tomorrow and if the revered Elon Musk has any commentary to address declining sales and bolstering guidance. While in the Magnificent category earnings from Meta (Wednesday), and Google /Microsoft (Thursday) will set the tone for the sessions ahead. As I ponder on how corpo…

Investors have clearly taken some chips off the table. On a technical level, the bulls have lost some ground as major US indices slide below their 50d mva, breadth continues to deteriorate, and some defensive names are making 3-month relative highs. But to take the 30,000-foot view – what has really changed in the past month? For the bears, a hawkish reality check for investors is certainly number one on the list, complimented by elevated yields and commodity prices, but to play devil’s advoca…

Fading the rally has paid off as of late, and today did not prove that theory wrong. Thursday’s trading marked the fifth session in a row of losses for the S&P and the fourth consecutive where the market’s early gains were reversed by the session’s end to losses. Ultimately, a mixed result for the main US equity indices as the Dow led with modest gains vs the Nasdaq underperforming in the red while the S&P also fell lower. A confluence of— yields continuing to persist higher, Fed-speak shift…

The last few days have been a battle, which has kept both bulls and bears on the edge of their seats. After Mr. Powell failed to push back against the recent re-pricing of Fed easing expectations, equity price action remained brave yesterday in the face of rising yields. But today showed that any confidence was tentative. The expectation was for a move lower by both yields and oil to be the answer to equities’ woes. Those moves came into fruition, but they were undermined by disappointment arou…

One of the side benefits of hiring the next generation of employees is you get reminded of things from your youth that have long been forgotten. Today’s edition was the song Alive, Alert, Awake! Market participants are trained to be all of the above but the last word of that “song” is enthusiastic and that element has been somewhat missing, at least if you’re still riding the bull market express. The month that is supposed to bring about spring and blossoming flowers instead has things looking…

Weakness in US equities continued today as US treasury yields marched higher on strong consumer data. March retail sales came in hotter than expected with the headline number coming in at 0.7% MoM (est. 0.4%) and sales ex auto at 1.1% MoM (est. 0.5%). In addition to the jump in March retails sales, all the February sales data was revised upwards. Traders watched at the US10YR climbed firmly above 4.5% and the US2YR bang its head against the resistance level of 5%. We have not seen these rate le…