Suddenly we’re two weeks into May and staring at a screen full of green. Equities notched their fourth straight day of gains while yields slid as a buffet of economic data breathed a bit of life into the doves. A standout PPI report pushed back against recent stagflation concerns, showing the largest drop in prices paid in five years. The decline was largely driven by a pull-forward in inventory purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs, offering distributors some welcome cost flexibility (for now…

The wild 22% rally off the April 7th lows stalled out on Wednesday in relatively low-volatility session. The SPX traded in a 24-point range, the narrowest since February 14th, and closed marginally higher, +.10%. Are buyers exhausted, worn out, or just catching their breath after this epic run from an even wilder sell-off? A pull-back would seem only natural as investors return to fundamental analysis as the recent flurry of earnings is digested. President Trump’s trip to the Middle East has…

U.S. markets returned to gains after initial weakness early Tuesday thanks to good news from the government’s report on inflation. The CPI showed annual inflation easing slightly to 2.3% in the 12 months through April, which marked the slowest annual rate since early 2021, and undershot expectations that it would remain at 2.4%. Equally as important to the day’s sentiment was President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh, where he was welcomed with a Saudi military escort, further signaling Middl…

With much less fanfare but equal in import, we get a newly named day today as some of the tariff veil gets lifted even further. Said name a bit unclear but that matters less than the result, which is now a temporary hold on the elevated duties between the two main combatants, the US reducing theirs from 145% to 30%, China from 125% to 10. The standard caveat applies, tariffs can reverse course if substantive talks don’t occur in the next ninety days but the market clearly taking this as a big…

Wall Street saw a risk-on surge Thursday morning, with stocks rising early in the session as Trump announced US-UK trade framework to reduce barriers and expand market access for American goods like beef and ethanol. It aims to fast-track US exports through UK customs and lower barriers on agricultural, chemical, energy, and industrial exports. Trump also hinted at lower tariffs if planned China talks succeed. The S&P Index rallied ~1.25% after trump spoke and maintained gains during a sideways…

Traders were in for a choppy session despite a Fed meeting and presser that could ultimately be summed up as “wait and see”. The FOMC chose to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5% in a widely expected move, stressing the increased risks of both higher inflation and higher unemployment. While the issued statement touched on a ‘solid’ labor market and underlying pace of economic expansion, the Fed Chair faced pointed questions on how much further weakness we need to see to warrant a cut and t…

Hear ye, hear ye…for all those Fed-heads out there, tomorrow is decision day!

Mostly a Mundane Monday as our UK counterparts were shut to celebrate Bank Day, along with the Americas celebrating Cinco De Mayo, and lastly my fellow Skywalkers coming down from the “fourth” being with them. After 9 straight days in the green (first time since 2004), US Equities took a breather today despite a midafternoon rally post optimistic trade commentary from President Trump. With volumes still well off the 20-day average, equities maintained their weakness from the premarket througho…

April is in the rearview now, but the recent trend higher continued for the 1st day of May. Equites got a boost as two of the MAGA 7 (no-typo) provided positive results last night, highlighting that their earnings power continues even in a volatile tariff headline driven environment. The S&P 500 closed higher by 63bps, its eighth day in the green (last time was August 2024) as Tech (XLK +1.47%) led. Microsoft (+7.6%) and Meta (+4.2%) provided the impetus and that was enough to get the broader g…

When Trump said “Myself” in response to being asked who he would like to see succeed Pope Francis yesterday, it was hardly a surprising answer, but it made us laugh. Feels like we could all use a good laugh in the current environment with traders facing earnings galore and full slates of important economic data this week, as well as month end shenanigans today. US indices were setup for failure from the start with a slew of disappointing earnings pre-market (See: Super Micro -11.5%, Norwegian C…