A modest risk off tone defined month and quarter end today until US Indices flipped the script with roughly fifteen minutes to go, righting the ship and then some as the S&P500 closed at yet another all-time high, posting the first positive September since 2019 – seasonality be damned! Powell took to the podium early afternoon and though his pre-prepared remarks broadly reiterated what we heard from the Fed’s meeting earlier this month, the Q&A portion sparked a stark sell off when the Fed chai…

“To get rich is glorious.”

There was a little less enthusiasm to go around today after yesterday’s 41st record close for the year, with stark underperformance by the Russell and volumes that remained paltry. Without any real domestic news to ponder (new home sales weren’t narrative shifting), it was the international headlines overnight that had the most impact on the sentiment, delivering a dash of dovishness – Chinese and Swedish rate cuts and a hard slowdown in Australia’s CPI. Treasuries and Brent both saw some profi…

With the FOMC and triple-witch/ S&P rebalance out of the way, markets have been trying to draw on the positive (a fresh 50bps cut to rates) to punch to new highs. But the little economic data today reminded traders why the Fed wanted to cut by that amount as the Consumer Confidence datapoint fell to 98.7 from August’s revised higher 105.6. Within the survey, consumers were concerned about harder to find jobs and slower salary increases, even as the job market remains healthy. A view that the Fe…

The bulls are running lose in the streets, just ask the residents of North Attleborough Massachusetts. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at all-time highs once again while the Nasdaq 100 (19,852) is fighting to get back above the 20,000 level not seen since July. This morning’s economic data caused some worry after S&P Global reported September US PMI data. While services PMI (55.4 vs est. 55.2) came in slightly higher than estimates, manufacturing PMI (47 vs est. 48.6) m…

How’s that for a Triple Witching Friday, Sir Isaac Newton once said “what goes up, must come down”. In theory we shouldn’t be surprised at gravity by now, should we?! As mentioned on our Trading The Macro Call series (replay in link) we look for signs to confirm the SPX breakout and S&P futures are just shy of their July highs, so with main averages in the red for majority of this quarter’s “TWF” not much to be too alarmed on. As mentioned, volumes were elevated as expected a staggering +136% a…

Powell has delivered the 50bp cut traders wanted and they in turn added to their risk. Markets responded well today to the thought that the Fed could actually provide the soft landing that investors have been fretting about since 2022. Green in the index futures greeted participants as they awoke this morning, and that strength never let up. At the end of the session, the S&P 500 sat at a new ATH closing high, and the Nasdaq had its best day of performance since August 8th. The third horseman,…

Happy Fednesday. The long-awaited Fed pivot officially started today with an historic 50bps rate cut, the first cut since 2020. The excitement was palpable as the kneejerk reaction was for the SPX (all-time intraday high), CCMP, small caps and Gold (record high) to ramp higher, while the DXY and yields turned lower. But that was reversed in prompt fashion during Jerome Powell’s presser as he watered down further expectations saying, “the committee is not in a rush” and “no one should look at th…

Is this what some people mean by manifesting? A cut is coming tomorrow, you can count on that. There was much consternation a cut didn’t come in July, (if investors were the crowd at a football game, Powell was the starting QB and he was getting booed LOUDLY) although tempers did cool some since. 25bps has been largely priced in for some time so what to make of 50bps now the odds-on favorite, seemingly without much to support that move? Some are clamoring for it, but it could be fool’s gold if…

We’re halfway through September and despite the overwhelming number of seasonality warnings that started the month, US equities continue to climb the wall of worry. Friday’s session saw a fresh all-time high for the S&P500 advance decline line and today was another encouraging demonstration of breadth with a 76% up day. However, the grind higher hasn’t been without its hiccups – the S&P500 has now seen four market cap swings of $2tn+ since the beginning of August! Yields slid across the curve t…