Fading the rally has paid off as of late, and today did not prove that theory wrong. Thursday’s trading marked the fifth session in a row of losses for the S&P and the fourth consecutive where the market’s early gains were reversed by the session’s end to losses. Ultimately, a mixed result for the main US equity indices as the Dow led with modest gains vs the Nasdaq underperforming in the red while the S&P also fell lower. A confluence of— yields continuing to persist higher, Fed-speak shift…

The last few days have been a battle, which has kept both bulls and bears on the edge of their seats. After Mr. Powell failed to push back against the recent re-pricing of Fed easing expectations, equity price action remained brave yesterday in the face of rising yields. But today showed that any confidence was tentative. The expectation was for a move lower by both yields and oil to be the answer to equities’ woes. Those moves came into fruition, but they were undermined by disappointment arou…

One of the side benefits of hiring the next generation of employees is you get reminded of things from your youth that have long been forgotten. Today’s edition was the song Alive, Alert, Awake! Market participants are trained to be all of the above but the last word of that “song” is enthusiastic and that element has been somewhat missing, at least if you’re still riding the bull market express. The month that is supposed to bring about spring and blossoming flowers instead has things looking…

Weakness in US equities continued today as US treasury yields marched higher on strong consumer data. March retail sales came in hotter than expected with the headline number coming in at 0.7% MoM (est. 0.4%) and sales ex auto at 1.1% MoM (est. 0.5%). In addition to the jump in March retails sales, all the February sales data was revised upwards. Traders watched at the US10YR climbed firmly above 4.5% and the US2YR bang its head against the resistance level of 5%. We have not seen these rate le…

Markets sang a different tune this week. A massive hawkish repricing in yields and Fed expectations reset the rate cut goal posts again after Wednesday’s hot CPI and a deteriorating geopolitical landscape rocked the boat for investors in today’s session. But alas headlines only ever scratch the surface and in truth, there was no shortage of culprits for today’s choppy moves. We started the day with a series of earnings reports from US banks (more below), followed by a jump in Michigan inflation…

I suppose if you have rented a house, bought groceries or filled a car with gas recently, you knew that inflation was not heading lower. And because those three remain high, affording a car is a tougher proposition (those prices actually did fall). Anyway, that is yesterday’s news and equities have quickly moved past another higher-than-expected CPI print. Today’s session started with another inflation read via the PPI which saw the y/y datapoint move sequentially higher. But while the broader…

If we were playing Jeopardy, the Daily Double Answer would be: “Not many, though the odds of rate cuts are now 50% in June and 88% in July.” The question then would have to be “What are the conclusions of today’s FOMC minutes?” Other “answers” in response to today’s risk off mood pertained to hotter CPI prints and a disappointing 10Y auction. In addition, a Bloomberg report that Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israel could be imminent did little to help optimism. It’s noteworthy that The Fed ar…

Pass the ball, rotate the offense and shift the defense……pardon my sports jargon it’s the March Madness in me, but now that the hoops Madness has concluded (congrats to the UCONN Huskies and South Carolina Gamecocks) and the solar eclipse has rolled on (I hope you weren’t too cool for school), markets seemed to have a little more action today better yet…rotation! As US major indices were in the red for majority of the trading session, it seemed that the hesitant buyers remerged post Bostick’s c…

US Markets meandered aimlessly in typical Monday fashion as midday confusion over night vs day seemed to eclipse market activity as data shows this was the lightest trading day of 2024. We traded on either side of the breakeven line throughout the day before finally closing flattish as we prepare for another macro-abundant week with March CPI on Wednesday plus March FOMC Minutes and PPI to follow on Thursday before banks earnings kick things off for Q2 results on Friday. As a precursor, we go…

TGINFPF (Thank God It’s NFP Friday). The change in NFPs for March blew past all estimates this morning, coming in at 303k vs 214k expected and well above the recent monthly average of around 250k while average hourly earnings nudged lower YoY. But interestingly, the data hasn’t done much to upset the apple cart with US equities finishing comfortably in the green. However, the report did shake things up for yields across the curve with the 10-year closing +200bps. The overarching theme for the w…