US equity markets were lured higher today as we prepare for a shortened week served up via the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday which will be followed by a tryptophan-induced half day on Friday. With a light macro lineup and average volumes, the market played follow-the-leader with Tech at the helm. The Nasdaq hit a new 22-mo high and both the ‘Magic 7’ and NYFANG+ hit new all-time highs as all constituents were in the plus on the day. Market breadth improved as the tech rally pulled the bro…

The November moves have continued for another week, this time as investors rejoice the declining CPI data. Whether Powell and the Fed can pull off a Captain Sully remains a topic of debate, however investors have voiced their opinion by pushing Fed Fund Future expectations 100bps lower by the end of 2024. According to the daily regimen of Fed speakers, they are still not ready to claim inflation victory (Daly and Collins), although Barr thought they were “at or near interest rate peak”. Equites…

The tailwinds that have been propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 7.5% and 9.8% respectively for the month seem to have disappeared. Rising concerns over the strength of the consumer and economy have become headwinds for equities. US Treasury rates fell after Jobless claims and Continuing claims were higher than estimates, with continuing claims rising every week since the beginning of September. Unlike previous sessions this month, the falling rates were not enough to push equities higher after…

The post CPI optimism continued into today’s equity trading but not quite as ebullient, as investors turned their attention to the most disregarded stocks of the last few months — banks, airlines, consumer discretionary etc. Shorted names were covered or outright bought as investors scrambled to add beta to their portfolios—as evidenced by the GS Most Short Rolling index up over 9% in the past two sessions. The move looks like early November’s jump of 11%, but that move was short-lived and t…

Just give me a reason, just a little bit’s enough

After a strong week of rallying, equities pulled back from a ~two-month high driven by peaking Fed rates bets. Albeit the S&P 500 fluctuated near its key 4,400 mark, equities seemed rather directionless throughout today’s trading session. Futures started out rocky as the U.S debt rating cut by Moody’s last week bled into this morning to only trade sideways in today’s session. As we have a plethora of economic data and FOMC speakers on deck, all hands and eyes are glued for tomorrow’s US CPI pri…

Equities were back in the saddle today with the S&P breaking out (and holding) above 4400. In dissecting indicies’ decided march up, a few curious trends emerge – the most glaring being an MVP award for the magnificent 7. As we move into year-end investors are playing catch up by betting on big tech while concerning relative lows this week for the Nasdaq, S&P, and Russell *equal weight* indices paint a more bearish picture. Today, the S&P finished up +1.56%, a stark divergence from its equal we…

What a week can do. Even after today’s drop, the S&P 500 is still 110 points higher than when Powell spoke post-FOMC. Markets have shifted their outlook to higher till next May (as of this morning), with rate cuts starting then. Fed heads this week have not changed that new investor expectation, but traders will always give added attention to Chairman Powell. Today he commented that the Fed is “not confident” policy is at a restrictive enough level, offsetting the dovish tilt investors had pric…

Equities finished mixed in a monotonous trading session marking the eighth consecutive up day in the S&P and ninth up day in the Nasdaq. In terms of catalyst, rather bare until next Tuesday, November 14th, when we get US CPI data. 10-year Treasury yield fell further, assisted in part by a decent auction which bolstered stocks higher in the latter half of the day. The tone of headlines around the US-China relationship continued to improve ahead of the Biden-Xi summit next week at APEC, while the…

Remember in the early days of the Zoom call boom, when invariably one of the ‘attendees’ faces would freeze, and usually in some unflattering manner to boot. I was reminded of that as I monitored the indices movements in the afternoon. Were they frozen? Not quite, but after an early dip in the red and an equally fast move into the green, equities were largely static for the balance of the afternoon. It’s been a wild few weeks (months? year?) so any calm may be welcome. Minnesota Fed President K…