The weekend attacks set a somber start to the market today. It is Columbus Day in the US, and that meant the bond market was close. With Treasuries not trading, safety assets like the Treasury future (USA +1.44%) and Dollar (+2bps) saw a quick early bid as traders moved towards them. Equities also started cautiously. But with no economic news on the calendar (due to the holiday), investors monitored the Fed speakers today that continue to push the current rate regime. We all know Powell wants h…

The blowout jobs report this morning (in case you need a reminder Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 335k vs 170k expected), spurred selling in treasuries and a concurrent yield spike that initially weighed on equities. It wasn’t just jobs though –The Manheim used car index for September rose 1% m/m as well. However, in a maybe not-so-surprising reversal, stocks found new life by the day’s end, closing well into the green and just off highs. It’s possible that investors had already exhausted their s…

Looking at the finally tally of the indexes do not really reflect the underlying tensions. The 10-year yield has moved from 4.57% to 4.71% in a week as the Street tries to decide what the right level should be amidst recent economic data. Jeffrey Gundlach probably described the current Treasury mood best with the “T-Bill and chill”, after Tuesday’s 52-week auction was met with a higher bid-to-cover ratio (3.21 versus the previous 3.14). Equities have endured their own tumultuous time, first wit…

Equities rallied in a welcomed reprieve today as yields took a breather from the relentless thrust higher we have become accustomed to lately. This morning’s weaker than expected ADP Employment report proved opposite to the yesterday’s surprisingly optimistic JOLTs number. The market rewarded this “bad” news as the “good” it needed to rally on a cooling labor market’s key role in helping to bring inflation back in check and put a stop to yields going higher and/or having to stay there for lon…

Despite the “holiday” that comes at the end of this month, it’s September that’s supposed to “scare” the bejeezus out of the market; and that it did. But the yield ghosts and goblins remain out in force as the Street slowly comes to grips with an elevated interest rate environment that is starting to feel like the new normal. JPM CEO Dimon reiterated his call for 7% rate hikes, Fed officials added (again) we would be higher for longer, echoed by Yellen this afternoon. And last night Cleveland F…

Alas, a new quarter is upon us- hopes and dreams renewed of history ready to repeat itself with a seasonally strong quarter to finish off the year. Unfortunately, however, a surprise side-step of a US government shutdown over the weekend, encouraging China PMI data, and the sun shining down on NYC this morning proved ultimately futile in quelling the market’s underlying nerves. The macro headwinds remained strong and steady in the face of a hopeful lot this morning. The ISM Manufacturing pri…

The weather has been ugly in New York today, an apt comparison to how equities fared this month and quarter. None of the indexes posted a gain, with 22 of the 24 GICS sectors lower as well. And over the quarter, Treasury yields (for the 10-yr) moved from 3.84% to 4.58%, as the higher for longer theme sunk in. With that as a backdrop, markets today moved lower throughout the session, with the S&P 500 closing down 27bps, and Nasdaq up 14bps. Investors continue to monitor economic data for FOMC cl…

‘Every day is a knife fight over here.’

What started off as another tough day for major US equity indices, ended with the SPX and Nasdaq flat to slightly higher with no fundamental reason whatsoever. Mark Zuckerberg talking about AI, and McConnell saying he would work to avoid a shutdown, were clearly not the triggers for the rebound. Currently, markets are being dictated by emotion and positioning without any new, clear macro guidance to give investors direction in a meaningful way. Thus, investors continue to wait with hope that Fr…

Nobody likes to lose the quarter, but sometimes it is unavoidable. US Equities are limping off to the sidelines as the end of Q3 is only days away now. All signs are pointing to a “Loss” particularly after the S&P500 fell to new 3mo lows today as the headwinds continue to build in the complicated macro backdrop markets are attempting to navigate. Despite breaking the losing streak for a brief respite yesterday, US indices continued their downward slide today as the macro data further contribu…