Markets followed the New York weather today with a dreary and dull performance. S&P 500 volumes were down 15% compared to the 20d average and performance was choppy at best before eventually closing higher on the day. Headwinds continue to develop for US equites as the S&P and Nasdaq closed below their 100-day moving average for the fourth day in a row. US treasuries have become more of a concern for equities lately, especially with longer term yields continuing to climb. The US10Y and US30Y ar…

It has been another rough week for equities as the main indexes posted their third weekly loss. The Fed has been diligent in their messaging approach about “higher for longer”, but while the CME data had that modeled (5.25-5.5% until May 2024), some on Wall Street apparently did not believe it. Looking at the moves in Treasuries this week, some portfolio adjustments have been made. 2-year and 10-year yields have moved back to 2007 levels, pressuring stocks in the process, as investors try to co…

We’ve gone from hike to hold. From the US to SNB to BoE, central banks maintained the status quo this week, and even those that hadn’t signaled the end is nigh. Even so, it’s not being taken well. The market wanted cuts YESTERDAY; that clearly isn’t going to happen, and the issue revolves around when will they come. The Fed kicked the transitory can down the road for far too long and the Street now fears they may be doing the same with the higher for longer narrative. Brief reminder: cuts were…

Well, I think we all knew where today was going. Starting the day, CME data had the likely hood of a pause at 99% and what did we get? A pause. The real focus for traders today was the new Fed dot plot which surprised most with the median rate forecasted to be 5.125% (est. 4.875%) for 2024. The US2Y rose to 5.16% after the release, a level not seen since 2006. When it comes to the possibility of another hike this year, Fed officials remained mixed. Twelve officials see one more rate hike this y…

Another relatively muted day for equities today as US markets fell mostly lower despite a (failed) attempt to fully recover ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Energy has captured the spotlight as the headwind of the moment, and though ultimately reversing to flattish on the day, the damage was done when Brent crude breached $95 early this am and spooked sentiment sufficiently. Yields rose soundly across the curve as concerns of higher for longer echoed far and wide. The 10-year yield closed…

US equities travelled quite a bit today but went nowhere, as the SPX sat near the low-end of its multi-week range, but still managed to close just slightly higher on the day. Investors await a multitude of central bank meetings this week, including The Fed’s next policy decision on Wednesday, but also central bank decisions from China, Japan, Norway, the UK, and a few others as the week progresses. Wall Street is nearly unanimously expecting the FOMC to hold the federal-funds rate steady at 5.2…

A broad-based weak day in equity markets, with notable declines in technology names. All the key indices were lower with the NASDAQ down the most reflecting technology and all the S&P sectors declining. Every one of the “magnificent seven” in the red today. It was triple witching so that played a part. Semis were especially weak after a news report that Taiwan Semi (-2.3%) had asked suppliers to delay some incoming shipments. The Philly Semiconductor index gave back 3.0% with KLA Corp (-5.3%) a…

Equities saw gains on Thursday, driven by Arm Holdings Plc’s debut excitement and a better-than-expected print on retail sales. Investors decided to take the data positively even though this might continue to push the narrative of higher for longer rates. Investors are still expecting the Fed to pause this month. All indices were positive, although unlike recent sessions, the sector mix pointed to a more cautious stance. Rotation continued in favor of Energy, which saw strong support from crud…

Major indices were able to finish higher into the close, after the sessions’ biggest catalyst (the CPI) did little to shift the larger narrative. The CPI print saw an (expected) uptick on the headline number, driven by rising energy prices as well as shelter, while the core number fell to bang inline vs cons on a YoY basis. Commentators knew higher energy costs would be a factor, so little surprise there. Either way, bulls continue to highlight progress on core and continue to expect shelter/ho…

Tech pulled markets lower in Tuesday trading as outperformance in Energy did little to offset the broader result. The Nasdaq underperformed its index peers and again traded places with its 50-day MA to the losing position today.. The main offenders on the drop today were Oracle falling (-13.5%) as the worst performing name in the S&P following discouraging release yesterday and Apple (-3.1%) as the main event of the day did little to spur excitement as the new release of the iPhone, smartwatch…