Caution! Jobs may be hot! Traders were stunned this morning after payroll data showed the biggest increase in nonfarm payrolls (+254k vse +150k) since March and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. We have officially landed back in good news is good news territory as stocks spiked after the release of the report and held onto their gains for the remainder of the day. The underappreciated Russel was the leader of the day, after years of trading at a discount to the S&P 500, hopes of a so…

Traders have been singing their own version of Stuck in the Middle With You this week, as the Middle East conflicts have created a bigger reason to wait for the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow morning. Volumes in the S&P 500 have been declining all week with today being the lightest (S&P 500 -17% versus the 20d) as investors have watched the CME data move from a 50:50 chance of another 50bps Fed cuts in November, to the current 34.6%. Economic data is the driver for those changes as bot…

As US futures started wobbly and rightfully so with the geopolitical backdrop as volatile as it is,, major averages managed to finish in the green (minus the RTW). As US major averages spent majority of the morning in the red, crude continued to rise, while the tide turned late morning/early afternoon as averages began to extend to session highs. Fed speakers Bowman and Barkin did not seem to have much impact with their comments midday. Be on the watch out for Q4 seasonality starting late Octo…

There are only so many things a market can price in and today we got another stark reminder of how tenuous and volatile things remain in the Middle East. The most recent conflagration came as Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel post their targeted ground operation in Lebanon. This was the best 9 months of the year since 1997. So perhaps with month/quarter-end books tidied up, a bit of selling was going to greet the opening of Q4 regardless, this latest conflict an easy excuse. There has bee…

A modest risk off tone defined month and quarter end today until US Indices flipped the script with roughly fifteen minutes to go, righting the ship and then some as the S&P500 closed at yet another all-time high, posting the first positive September since 2019 – seasonality be damned! Powell took to the podium early afternoon and though his pre-prepared remarks broadly reiterated what we heard from the Fed’s meeting earlier this month, the Q&A portion sparked a stark sell off when the Fed chai…

“To get rich is glorious.”

There was a little less enthusiasm to go around today after yesterday’s 41st record close for the year, with stark underperformance by the Russell and volumes that remained paltry. Without any real domestic news to ponder (new home sales weren’t narrative shifting), it was the international headlines overnight that had the most impact on the sentiment, delivering a dash of dovishness – Chinese and Swedish rate cuts and a hard slowdown in Australia’s CPI. Treasuries and Brent both saw some profi…

With the FOMC and triple-witch/ S&P rebalance out of the way, markets have been trying to draw on the positive (a fresh 50bps cut to rates) to punch to new highs. But the little economic data today reminded traders why the Fed wanted to cut by that amount as the Consumer Confidence datapoint fell to 98.7 from August’s revised higher 105.6. Within the survey, consumers were concerned about harder to find jobs and slower salary increases, even as the job market remains healthy. A view that the Fe…

The bulls are running lose in the streets, just ask the residents of North Attleborough Massachusetts. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at all-time highs once again while the Nasdaq 100 (19,852) is fighting to get back above the 20,000 level not seen since July. This morning’s economic data caused some worry after S&P Global reported September US PMI data. While services PMI (55.4 vs est. 55.2) came in slightly higher than estimates, manufacturing PMI (47 vs est. 48.6) m…

How’s that for a Triple Witching Friday, Sir Isaac Newton once said “what goes up, must come down”. In theory we shouldn’t be surprised at gravity by now, should we?! As mentioned on our Trading The Macro Call series (replay in link) we look for signs to confirm the SPX breakout and S&P futures are just shy of their July highs, so with main averages in the red for majority of this quarter’s “TWF” not much to be too alarmed on. As mentioned, volumes were elevated as expected a staggering +136% a…