Will Winzor-Saile

Will joined Redburn in 2015. Prior to this he worked as an Electronic Execution Specialist at Fidessa. Will holds a first-class masters in Maths and Physics from the University of Warwick.
Two Fifteen

Two Fifteen – 1 June 2020

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The new month has started more with a whimper than a bang given several European markets are closed due to the Whit Monday holiday. Of those markets that are open, volumes are down hard versus the 20d AVAT, though are managing gains. Looking at the SXXP sectors, all are currently in the green with Travel & Leisure and Banks leading the way. With Friday’s month end and subsequent profit-taking now in the rear-view mirror, the Airlines and Tui resumed their rally. Cyclicals are generally outperforming Defensives today, while in the US, the protests over the weekend has had little impact on US Futures, which are currently trading flat, despite the possibility of store closures in some major cities.

The View from 5th Avenue

The View at Two – 29 May 2020

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Say what? Stocks have been in a defensive stance as markets wait for the 2pm White House press conference on China.  Until a few minutes ago, few knew what Washington was going to do for China’s new security law in Hong Kong.  But it looks like Trump is moving towards some sanctions on Chinese financial institutions, along with some graduate student visa limitations; neither look too impactful.  The S&P 500 continues to trade above 3000 though, and seems to be more focused on the post virus economy than on China trade… for now.  Semiconductors are outperforming thanks to Marvell’s earnings last night, but the broader tape has a defensive tone to it.  Mega Tech, Utilities and Treasuries (10-yr) are higher, versus Banks and Energy.  With the President speaking soon, and the MSCI rebalance on the close, the scope of the trading day can change over the next two hours. 

Two Fifteen

Two Fifteen – 29 May 2020

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We are set to finish the week (and the month!) on a slightly different note as we see lower volumes across the board and most EU equities trading in the red (amid US/China tensions). Investors’ eyes will be on President Trump this afternoon as he will be holding a press conference on China and by the looks of things, the takeaway isn’t likely to be positive. On the plus side though, weather forecast this weekend looks pretty good so at least something to look forward to!

Two Fifteen

Two Fifteen – 28 May 2020

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US/China tensions continue to bubble away, as tensions ratchet up overnight. China has approved the new Hong Kong security legislation, so don’t be surprised if further vitriol is just around the corner. With Hong Kong’s ‘hub status’ in the cross hairs, the HSI was the main under performer in the region this morning. Fahed Kunwar reminds us that for HSBC and StanChart who make c70% and 40% of profits from Hong Kong, this could be a serious hit to their franchise which is built upon Hong Kong’s open markets.

The View from 5th Avenue

The View at Two – 28 May 2020

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One Moment in Time…We are saying hello to 12-week highs as the S&P fast approaches 3100 and it feels as if the past 3 months of stock destruction will be in the rearview mirror stat. Looking at the chart below, it would seem the S&P is back on the straight and narrow path to the moon (thank you, Fed’ers). One thing to keep an eye on is the leaderboard today, though. Healthcare, Telecom, Chemicals and Utes at the top half of the screen, XAU up again and volumes pretty eh, don’t exactly scream confidence, but there are definitely other signs of life (see below)…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View at Two – 27 May 2020

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Like Chumbawamba… The S&P keeps getting knocked back below 3,000 only to get up again. With the headlines on reopening, vaccines, and stimulus all continuing to move in the right direction, it’s felt inevitable the index would recapture its 200-DMA and the psychological milestone, yet the task has proven to be a pesky one. US-China barbs are partially to blame, as well as Tech having gone from poster child to problem child, with NYFANG -1.6% (funny how quick some are to label the sector a “drag” after all it’s done to contribute to the rebound!). Value still enjoying the spotlight suggests optimism around the path of the economy remains – the release of the Fed Beige Book later this afternoon should add some more color to the question as well.

Two Fifteen

Two Fifteen – 27 May 2020

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With summer in full swing before the first official day even kicks in and lockdowns/travel restrictions easing every day, it is almost inevitable not to be more positive about life. Ryanair confirmed this morning that they have seen a surge in bookings since the weekend and expect passenger levels to be back at 2019 levels by summer next year. By the sound of things, people are still willing to travel so hopefully we can all have a cheeky summer escape at some point.