It’s a Friday, so hit the risk-off button – The S&P has been trading in a diagonal (top left bottom right) pattern all day and is heading towards a weekly loss.  Markets are beginning to see the quantitative effects of the pandemic shutdown as March economic data is beginning to roll out.  As stocks continue their slide into the weekend (another Friday risk-off scenario), bond have benefitted with the 10-year yield now sitting at 0.574%   For those looking for a bright spot today, the VIX is below 50 for the first time since March 10th.

3283k vs 282k – That was the weekly jobless claims, and the stark reality of what the economy is facing.  While the $2trln stimulus package is on its way to the House for a vote tomorrow, today’s datapoint is the first showing the coronavirus impact.  But US equities are moving higher today as quarter end approaches, trying to get back above the 2600 level on the S&P.  Given the drastic asset movements this month, pensions will be rebalancing their portfolios (into equities from bonds), helping support US stocks into the weekend.

The new normal – Futures once again limit down overnight, but the circuit breaker did not get triggered until 12:56 today (versus just after the open the previous three times).  Looking around at all of the assets, the only one trading in the green is the Dollar, as everyone is rushing to cash (not just investors).  Oil is down 21%, a level last seen in 2002. Metal commodities are down, as well as Bonds.  One technical level our team has been watching is the 2346 on the SPX (from Dec. 2018), the index has now broken it, next level is -15% from here.