A third consecutive finish in the red today for US equities sets up an interesting scene for next week’s star-studded line up: Nvidia GTC Q&A call, a FOMC meeting, and a BoJ rate decision. Yields stepped up across the curve this week, jolting higher with each piece of luke-warm to hot inflation data (PPI I’m looking at you!) serving as a wakeup call to investors. The data deluge continued this morning with Empire Manufacturing coming in below all estimates while the Michigan sentiment was a tou…

Surely the various Fed Presidents are squirming in their seats a bit today as the data we received today surely raised the heat they’ll be feeling with their meeting less than a week away. The Street was prepped for PPI to come in slightly above estimates due to the CPI figures we saw on Tuesday but this may be a bit too hot to handle for the esteemed committee. The reason being is they have repeatedly said their decisions will be data-dependent and these figures a rate cut doth not make. One m…

It’s an oft-repeated phrase around these parts that new highs are bullish, and we stand by it. But sometimes those new highs make investors sheepish and/or limit willing participation. Or gravity defying levels in the marketplace encourage profit taking. This was likely the case today ahead of a triple-witching Friday and a dearth of major catalysts coming to fruition next week. Meanwhile, treasuries continued lower again still reeling from CPIs, the DXY was slightly weaker, and oil spiked on t…

If the S&P 500 isn’t hitting all-time highs are the markets even open! A hottish CPI print was no match for equities today, and there was no way the S&P 500 was going to log three down days in a row (has not happened since Jan 4th). After headline and core CPI topped forecasts for the second straight month, US treasury rates and the dollar pushed higher. S&P and Nasdaq futures briefly dropped before turning and following suit. One would have expected a move downward for main US indexes, but th…

Ahead of US CPI tomorrow, it seemed as if investors had “timid fingers” in today’s session with the implications of a June rate cut on the horizon (currently ~63% according to WIRP). Equities seemed gassed through and through, as Friday’s softness bled into the start of this week with a risk off approach in to tomorrow. Might I remind you, the weak seasonality period we’ve been calling for, has not yet filtered through, perhaps the US CPI print can be the catalyst we’ve had the watchful eye for…

A hotter-but-healthy NFP reading had something for everyone this morning. The headline figure came in at 275k versus the expected 200k but given a hefty revision downwards of January’s report and a slight increase in unemployment the jury is still out on whether today’s data will move the needle for a June rate cut. Though we may be at a temporary tie between the hawks and the doves, Powell looks like today’s winner as the employment figures broadly evidenced a strong labor market, seemingly wi…

The S&P 500 hit another all-time high today fueled by hopes of rate cuts by major central banks starting June. It started with the ECB this morning holding rates at current levels but cutting inflation forecasts for the year. US treasury yields fell briefly despite the ECB keeping their policy guidance restricted. Yields briefly recovered off their lows until Jerome Powell began to testify in front of the Senate. Traders betting on rate cuts were glad to hear him say that the Federal reserve is…

To understand the lack of excitement garnered today by J. Powell and The Fed’s Beige Book, one must only look to the markets, whose muted reaction said it all. The same message remains intact – progress has been made and there will be reductions in rates this year, just not yet. Same script, different day. Treasuries ended flattish, the DXY remained weak amid talk of a potential BOJ rate cut, and Brent remained strong due to a lack of Gaza ceasefire and Houthi attacks. Although Mr. Powell did n…

When the mighty fall, they take the rest of the lot with them. Especially when the mighty are that which is BIG Tech and you are in the context of this market… Today’s price action was a healthy retracement for the second day in a row this week with a steady fade lower and a last-ditch effort for a bounce off session lows into the close. Sniffs of China headwinds from both the macro and AAPL/AMD-related tainted sentiment overnight, spilled into the European session, and maintained its cours…

Markets today had the potential to be a nothing done given a lack of economic data with a busy calendar for the rest of the week. And while the broader indexes all fell today, volumes did not have that Monday profile. For the S&P 500, activity was +10% versus the 20-day, and was +7.9% for the Nasdaq. The fact that the S&P 500 has posted a weekly gain 16 of the last 18 weeks, a first since 1971, traders are staying engaged, even on what should have been a quiet Monday. Rates and the Fed’s outloo…