What goes up must come… down? Right?! I seem to have been led astray in grammar school physics because this bull market knows no path but the grind higher. Today’s session was sponsored by the bad news is still good news reception of deteriorating consumer sentiment, a downside surprise in ISM Manufacturing, and of course AI. A raft of Fed Speakers kept things interesting with Waller’s speech on QT drawing attention for its bias towards short-term treasuries as the Fed looks to reassess its bal…

Today was just your classic example of no news is good news. Anxiety over PCE data had traders tipping toeing through the first three days of the week but inflation figures and personal spending provided some good news for stocks. PCE inflation figures were in line with estimates across the board, with Headline PCE MoM rising 0.3% while Core PCE MoM rose 0.4%. This was the largest increase in a year. While they may not be the most dovish numbers, they did not exceed expectations which was the w…

More waiting. Ahead of Thursday/Friday’s inflation data (as well as US PCE tomorrow), investors were happy to rest and digest again today. Markets lazed, finishing slightly lower, with the Russell giving back more than half of yesterday’s gains. None of the economic data was market moving and Fed rhetoric remained on piste. Thus, the story is still one of single stocks as a bunch of earnings rolled out over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the DXY was slightly higher, while Brent was slightly low…

US markets are holding tough as the calendar heads towards another month end. Historically, the end of February brings weakness into equities, but that has not been the case this year, and indexes continue to hover just below their ATH levels. What is interesting about this dynamic is how the move higher for equities has developed while Treasury yields have jumped higher (10-yr has moved from 3.88% Feb 1st to 4.31% this month), and investors have moved back in line with the Fed’s 75bps of rate…

Quite the opposite of “Manic Monday”…Perhaps, the mania hasn’t started as we await a slew of economic data/commentary this week from Fed officials, in addition to receiving US CPI, PCE & ISM as earnings dwindle. After a mixed morning in US equities, seasonality (which we have continued to speak at nauseam) starts to turn negative as witnessed in today’s trading session. On the macro front, US Jan New Home Sales came in below estimates (661k vs. est 684K). A timely print, as our analyst Sam H…

In a week full of earnings and single stock shocks, the prevailing feeling among investors is a bit remnant of when your parents tell you they don’t have a favorite child… but we all know it’s Nvidia. The AI behemoth closed just shy of a staggering 2 trillion valuation but believe it or not there are in fact other fish in the sea moving markets today… Yields stumbled across the curve ahead of next week’s PCE reading that will no doubt bring the bring the rate debate front and center as ‘highe…

Nvidia crushed. Have a nice evening!

The final hour of trading was a rather interesting sequence of events, with US equities reaching session lows at the top of the hour to only spike into the bottom of the hour (last 30minutes) resulting in equities catching a bid and skewing the auction to the buyside. Needless to say much of today’s session felt rather risk off and rightfully so! Dominating the headlines from intraday Fed comments to FOMC Fed Minutes early afternoon to Nvida (-2.85%) earnings post market (beat across the board)…

It is with a cautious tone that we approach the next coming weeks. With a combination of historical seasonality falling out of favor for markets, a rebound in US bond yields and a stronger USD, we believe that the waters may be choppy ahead through March before resuming their bullish trend in the warmer months. Like all good rebirth / rise again / Spring awakening stories, 2024 may be no different. And we saw exactly that in US markets today. Choppy, cooling sentiment left major indices in…

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. US equities are sky-high, over bought, stubbornly resilient, and unwaveringly committed to a few favorite names but with the S&P1500 advance decline line making an all-time high Thursday and strong earnings growth it’s hard to argue that the path of least resistance remains higher despite a weaker session today. A few hot data points don’t make a trend, but today’s PPI print knocked markets off kilter early and if the reaction is any indication investors are beco…