After two days of relief, the rebound for US Markets hit a wall. All major US indexes were in the red with the tech heavy Nasdaq leading the decline. Volumes remained muted across the board with the S&P 500 vols down 18% vs the 20d average. In addition, over 65% of the stocks in the index declined on the day. You’d be hard pressed to find a sector that wasn’t negative at some point during the session, but defensive sectors were the place to be for outperformance with telecoms, healthcare and en…

It was the session before the beginning of the Fed’s March meeting and with little new-news out of Washington traders spent today’s session gearing up for this week’s line up of Central Bank meetings. We have a trio of rate decisions on deck from the BoJ, BoE, and the Fed. Powell’s presser Wednesday will be the main focus as the Fed Chair attempts to reassure shaky investors that the economy remains on solid footing. This task is particularly intimidating after today’s data fueled concerns of a…

Another reversal lower today after yesterday’s gains, as our technical team noted, “we are on bounce alert lately, but yesterday was not it.” Sigh. Rates held firm(ish), with the 2/10yr closing marginally lower (both down 4bps, the 2yr to 3.96% and 10yr to 4.27%). The day started off optimistically but by 10am, we had given up all the prior day’s gains, with gold edging toward a new ATH. Unlike the past few days, major indices were not able to find positive momentum after the European close a…

Futures painted an encouraging picture first thing this morning, but investors were reticent to give it any credence until they saw further proof. Reinforcements came in the form of gains for heavyweight momentum names and a softer than expected CPI reading (MoM .2% vs .3% est and .5% in Jan). The softer-than-expected release provided some relief after a tech-led sell-off earlier in the week, driven by tariff fears and uncertainty (they’re on/they’re off!) and economic slowdown concerns. Volat…

Indices fought their way back to flat today, but ultimately sank into the close in another roller coaster session. An early – albeit eerie – calm was quickly disrupted by President Trump’s enthusiastic remarks on Truth Social, threatening to increase tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%… tomorrow! The headlines thwarted an early lift for US equities after the January JOLTS report showed job openings rose to 7.74 million from a revised 7.51 million in December. While the increase in d…

Transition, Correction, Detox, Pain…Yes to all the above as we are looking out below. Whispers of the “R”(ecession) word linger as concerns over the health of the US economy permeate global sentiment. Risk off has been the theme, however last week into today you felt the de-grossing taking the cake; looking ahead if pain persists, capitulation isn’t too farfetched. Felt like there wasn’t a haven in sight during today’s session, ex-defensives (mainly energy and utilities), from tech to commodit…

As the new administration in Washington plans its global rearrangements, Newton’s Third Law of Motion has kicked in to counter the trade/ policy forces being discussed. Caught in the middle are the US markets. Tariffs, whether they are occurring or not, continue to play a major role in directions, with today being no different. Instead of providing a timeline of them for today, the quick recap is that the US has paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico USMCA trade until April 2nd. Unlike yesterday,…

As we’ve all seen, tariff news has been driving the market’s volatility over the past week. This morning, that took a backseat for a second as a flurry of economic data emerged for investors to interpret. ADP Employment numbers well below consensus (77k vse 140k) sent equity futures into the red as traders keep an eye on the nonfarm payrolls that release Friday. The second half of economic data had more positive effect, with Service PMI in February breaching the 50 level, indicating an expansio…

Quote of the Day – “Excited for the US, Mexico, and Canada to jointly host the World Cup next year!”

Here in NYC, the mood is starting to lift as daylight gets longer and the hopes of spring weather on the horizon start to rise. But on Wall Street the vibe is a much more concerning one as markets continue to their downward momentum following Nivida’s lukewarm earnings print and the end of an earnings season that left more to be desired. The CNN fear and greed index continues to lean towards “Extreme Fear” with S&P 500 firmly below its 100d (5950) and moving closer to its 200d mavg (5716). It’s…