The calendar is now only two weeks away from the Presidential election and that is leaving investors in a state of flux. The race is close, and that means the outcomes are tougher to position for until the picture clears. And unfortunately, that may not come right away (if the outcome is as close as the polls are suggesting). Until then, traders are deciphering earnings versus the current index levels and deciding whether those companies justify their current trading levels. Away from earnings,…

A relatively quiet Monday for US equities as investors prepared themselves for the peak of earnings season. With 112 companies in S&P 500 due to report this week, traders will have their hands full as they sift through a plethora of information, in what may the most scrutinized earnings season of the year. It was a choppy day for main US indexes as US treasury rates rose after T. Rowe Price CIO Arif Husain said the US 10y could “test the 5% threshold in the next 6 months” on concerns over risin…

Call me a contrarian but there’s something eerie about a market that just refuses to stop making all-time highs. It’s like waiting for the other shoe to drop only to find out at 4pm each day that we’ve done it again! Onwards and upwards! There are of course a number of reasons to be cautious – the most glaring of which is the US election with polls now showing Trump forging ahead, not to mention the massive government debt pile and continued escalation in the middle east. But truthfully, we’ve…

There was no shortage of moving parts today, beginning overnight with China disappointing the shock-and-awe injection seekers. It was followed by a continued barrage of earnings, a handful of economic data and potentially game-changing geopolitical headlines. Through it all, equity markets held steady, though fell just over the line into negative territory with minutes left to go. The DXY jumped 20bps, treasuries saw selling pressure, and Fed expectations shifted slightly hawkish. The move in…

“Market just doesn’t go down consecutive days…”

What’s left to say that ASML has already said for us. Thanks to a “technical error”, the company surprised investors with an early release of their Q3 results and they were not pretty. Q3 bookings missed estimates (Euros 2.63bn vs estimate of 5.39bn!) and the company cut its 2025 guidance. Many consider chip equipment manufacturers to be a leading indicator for the semiconductor sector and if this report is a precursor for the chip industry, investors will begin to worry about demand in the chi…

In 1492, Christopher Columbus sailed the wide ol’ blue…that was the saying right ? In any event, Indigenous People’s/Columbus Day has brought forth yet another ATH in the SPX in sleepy fashion as US equities ended in the green. With bond markets closed alongside Canada for the Canadian Thanksgiving, equity markets picked up right where they left off from Friday’s 88% up day. Stronger breadth reconfirming the recent/current breakout and bringing the 5th up week in a row. We also received further…

This bull market just won’t quit. In a way today was more of the same given both the S&P500 and the Dow closed at new highs as the S&P500 is now boasting +22% so far this year and 45 all-time highs (but who’s counting anymore). However, today’s session held some important developments as investors cleared two hurdles that help to pave the path of least resistance to the upside. The first came in the form of US Bank earnings, a typical indicator of overall consumer health and deal appetite which…

The trajectory was never going to be diagonal, but the overall direction for now remains. Inflation continues to be a hot topic and today’s CPI had some hotness to it. Core m/m and y/y (+0.3% and +3.3%) both were worse sequentially. But when you include the food and energy components, the figures were inline (m/m) or slightly better (y/y) versus August’s. Given the mixed result, markets largely took the new datapoint in stride. Fed heads have been busy this week tampering estimates for another…

When you hit the 44th fresh record of the year, it takes a bit of shine off the excitement. Still the S&P achieved another new all-time high today, up 66% from the October 2022 lows. As long as the very short-term support at 5674 holds, there is really nothing bearish about this price action. That said, Treasuries saw continued selling pressure w/yields spiking 5-6bp. Though FOMC minutes didn’t really deviate from recent narrative, the market is now pricing in 45bp worth of Fed cuts at the fina…