With the FOMC and triple-witch/ S&P rebalance out of the way, markets have been trying to draw on the positive (a fresh 50bps cut to rates) to punch to new highs. But the little economic data today reminded traders why the Fed wanted to cut by that amount as the Consumer Confidence datapoint fell to 98.7 from August’s revised higher 105.6. Within the survey, consumers were concerned about harder to find jobs and slower salary increases, even as the job market remains healthy. A view that the Fe…

The bulls are running lose in the streets, just ask the residents of North Attleborough Massachusetts. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at all-time highs once again while the Nasdaq 100 (19,852) is fighting to get back above the 20,000 level not seen since July. This morning’s economic data caused some worry after S&P Global reported September US PMI data. While services PMI (55.4 vs est. 55.2) came in slightly higher than estimates, manufacturing PMI (47 vs est. 48.6) m…

How’s that for a Triple Witching Friday, Sir Isaac Newton once said “what goes up, must come down”. In theory we shouldn’t be surprised at gravity by now, should we?! As mentioned on our Trading The Macro Call series (replay in link) we look for signs to confirm the SPX breakout and S&P futures are just shy of their July highs, so with main averages in the red for majority of this quarter’s “TWF” not much to be too alarmed on. As mentioned, volumes were elevated as expected a staggering +136% a…

Powell has delivered the 50bp cut traders wanted and they in turn added to their risk. Markets responded well today to the thought that the Fed could actually provide the soft landing that investors have been fretting about since 2022. Green in the index futures greeted participants as they awoke this morning, and that strength never let up. At the end of the session, the S&P 500 sat at a new ATH closing high, and the Nasdaq had its best day of performance since August 8th. The third horseman,…

Happy Fednesday. The long-awaited Fed pivot officially started today with an historic 50bps rate cut, the first cut since 2020. The excitement was palpable as the kneejerk reaction was for the SPX (all-time intraday high), CCMP, small caps and Gold (record high) to ramp higher, while the DXY and yields turned lower. But that was reversed in prompt fashion during Jerome Powell’s presser as he watered down further expectations saying, “the committee is not in a rush” and “no one should look at th…

Is this what some people mean by manifesting? A cut is coming tomorrow, you can count on that. There was much consternation a cut didn’t come in July, (if investors were the crowd at a football game, Powell was the starting QB and he was getting booed LOUDLY) although tempers did cool some since. 25bps has been largely priced in for some time so what to make of 50bps now the odds-on favorite, seemingly without much to support that move? Some are clamoring for it, but it could be fool’s gold if…

We’re halfway through September and despite the overwhelming number of seasonality warnings that started the month, US equities continue to climb the wall of worry. Friday’s session saw a fresh all-time high for the S&P500 advance decline line and today was another encouraging demonstration of breadth with a 76% up day. However, the grind higher hasn’t been without its hiccups – the S&P500 has now seen four market cap swings of $2tn+ since the beginning of August! Yields slid across the curve t…

Go big or go home? Maybe if bases are loaded in the ninth inning, but if you’re Jerome Powell and the Fed the guiding mantra we’re used to is typically more to the tune of ‘data dependency’ and ‘proceeding with caution’. However, the past twenty-four hours have seen a renewed debate over whether we can expect a 25bp or a super-sized 50bp rate cut at the Fed’s Wednesday meeting. As for what has driven the dovish bout, last night former Fed President Dudley said that he sees a strong case for 50…

To 25 or 50—that is the question, and the main thing on investors’ minds currently. And while the distinction itself doesn’t feel overly critical to the market’s trajectory, there was a Nick Timiraos WSJ article today debating the merits of each. Spoiler – he doesn’t exert a strong opinion either way, but he does quote Fed officials who think 50bps would be a good start. While we await our beleaguered Fed, the SPX was busy trying to make fresh highs today (though couldn’t quite make it to the…

Today was another day we pointed to as helping fill in the blanks for what the Fed might do next week. But as always on this 9/11 anniversary, a day that feels both fresh as yesterday and yet so long ago, emotions and focus are mixed. It was an interesting day to be sure, looking early that the gloominess of the day would translate to markets, equities suffering early on despite CPI data that suggested things remain very much on track. Odds of a supersize cut decreased on the number and it’s pe…