A moment of pause in markets today. Lower. We’ll call it a healthy pullback, void of any major catalysts, amidst an otherwise quiet session as markets and participants take the day to sharpen their tools for what lies ahead this week. All sectors, save for one on the margin, closing in the red with ~80% of the S&P falling lower in Monday trading. In sector performance, some minor reversion with YTD laggards (+Staples, Utilities) floating to the relative ‘top’ and Energy, Tech leading the decline.

Yawn! We close out the week with the most in line economic data we have seen in a while. With the Fed in the middle of their quiet period, many looked to today’s PCE data to provide a better understanding of what the Fed may be planning for the upcoming FOMC meeting next Wednesday. The PCE core deflator YoY reporting in line with estimates (4.4%), left traders in limbo while market movements lacked conviction in both directions. The SPX (+0.25%) remains within its current range with resistance at the 4100 level. While PCE data is still more than double the Fed target, they did see some data points moving in their favor.

It’s thirsty Thursday, and that seems appropriate as markets have been lapping up assets in January. Whether because they have been underweight after a rough 2022, or in anticipation of a soft landing, the support has been appreciated. Obviously there remains a lot of moving parts to this year’s outcome, but it seems easier to look forward since the Fed is closer to the end than the beginning. Equities built upon yesterday’s rally and finished at their highs once again. But today, the Russell 2k finally closed above the 1900 level, a resistance level our technical team is watching.

Well this was an interesting day. Mega-cap tech has long been the apple of investor’s eyes last year notwithstanding of course. All equities had a rough go of it but none more so than the growthy high fliers. 2023 has proven to be a new year for stocks the world over, and after a slow-ish start, tech has found it’s footing. Not even a stumble from Microsoft earnings last night seemed to present little more than a temporary obstacle to where the market wants to go.

A bunch of sound and fury that signified nothing this morning as markets opened to declarations of “flash crash” and “cyberattack.” Worry not– it was just a “system issue” at the NYSE, which caused 250 stocks to commence trading without an opening auction price. Not to worry— any trades effected could be declared “null and void.” Ummmkkkk. Shortly after, markets settled, but not before going below yesterday’s closing price. Yields fell as traders remained indecisive in terms of recessionary fears.

US markets in rally mode today as not much from the newswires to interfere. A number of Asian markets are closed for Lunar New Year for at least a majority of the week AND the Fed is now in their quiet period into the Feb 1 FOMC decision. This particular combo leaving less noise to be heard as we kick off a new week where earnings will take the lead role. One positive note that did hit was IMAX reporting 2nd best opening day for Chinese New Year ever- setting a better undertone for the week ahead as well. While it may feel like an exciting feat for the S&P to close above 4k, let’s remember that we were here not that long ago!

Lately the markets have been singing the same ole tune, Steelers Wheel “Stuck in the Middle with You” seems appropriate. SPX continuing to stay in bounds of the latest range with upside resistance of 4100 and downside support of 3800, closing slightly above the 200d (3968). Markets erased almost all this weeks’ earlier losses with both the SPX (+1.89%) and NDX (+2.86%) taking advantage of elevated volumes. The NDX caught the bigger wave today and outperformed, after NFLX (+8.46%) reported subscriber growth of 7.66m, GOOGL (+5.34%) announced 12,000 job cuts and MSFT (+3.57%) closed in the green for the first time this year.

Gotta love this market, which by all accounts seems to be suffering from a severe case of indecision. Major US indices performed a quick about face early afternoon, paring the morning’s losses for no apparent reason. Then sold off again into the close for the same no apparent reason. Brainard took The Fed microphone midday, but he never veered off the script. He acknowledged inflation still remains high and The Fed needs to remain sufficiently restrictive. Nothing to see here. Commodities outperformed — Crude was up over 1.5% at one point, while bonds erased some of yesterday’s gains.

Higher for longer will have to remain a term for the Fed as equities decided to fall back today. After closing above its 200-day moving average for two sessions, the S&P 500 fell back below, ultimately finishing with its worst one-day performance this (short) year. No doubt the Fed is a central theme for the investment outlook, but traders were reminded today that the aggressive rate hikes in 2022 are still in their infancy for economic impact. Data therefore remains the important part of the recession (will it or not happen) forecast and today’s calendar had plenty to offer.

A Tale of 2 Banks seems a fitting title for the day as MS and GS moved in (nearly) equal and (decidedly) opposite directions today as the headliners in the resumption of earnings season following a lovely long-holiday-weekend for those of us here in the States. The former rallied (+5.9%) on an inline set of results with the highlight on its wealth mgmt division, while the latter got punished (-6.44%) for falling short on topline revs and higher expenses.