Markets found relief in a broad-based rally today– ~95% of the S&P trading in the green- and what we would notably tag as a bear market bounce. (pssst- the 10yr yield has quietly crept back and again closed above 4% despite equities rallying higher and an ongoing reminder that inflationary concerns remain amongst us.) After suffering losses 4 out of the 5 trading days last week or a grand total of 7 out of the previous 8 sessions to ultimately reach a 50% retracement of the Covid rally on the S&P, we find ourselves (alongside UK PM Truss…) taking a necessary pause-and-reflect to start the week off.

Yesterday was a bit of a jaw dropper, but from a macro perspective things remained unchanged. Going into today the big question was whether the bounce would continue, but a surprise from both Retail Sales and University of Michigan prevented that from happening. The headline Retail Sales figure missed, and spending in 7 of the 13 retail categories declined last month. University of Michigan sentiment did come in higher than expectations, but the one year inflation outlook ticked up for the first time in 7 months.

Today seemed to defy gravity and logic. One example -– The SOXL. which was down -15.4% on the lows then procured a +20% intra-day rally to end the day +9%. But that wasn’t the only wild swing — the S&P swung over 5%, Bitcoin swung over 6% and JNK (HY Bond ETF) almost 2%. Not to mention, the Yen tested its former 1998 high at 147.66…and the 30yr fixed mortgage rate bumped up against 7%— nothing like the 80’s of course, but still 20y highs. That said, looks can be deceiving and some of the moves didn’t paint as clear a picture of a shift out of bonds and into equities as one might have expected.

It was certainly not a quiet start to the day, with confusion and murkiness around what the next steps from the BoE would be. US futures managed to shrug this off leading into the PPI data release albeit with slightly less follow through after a relative miss on the print. With the market so intently focused on these datapoints as an indication that the FED *might* budge- this did not do the trick. Nor did the FOMC minutes release later in the session which brought more of the hawkish narrative we are quite used to seeing by now.

It’s complicated, but Turnaround Tuesday is still relevant..ISH… But in the end, it just wasn’t enough – we’ll call it a good ole’ roundtripper. In early trading, US markets were quick to test the lows– where we began discussing “last ditch” support levels at 3584 on the S&P with some help next at 3400 but more solidly not until 3200. After thoroughly testing this threshold mid-morning, we were able to bounce higher and drift along into positive territory for the majority of the afternoon.

Note to self – turn Bloomberg alerts off over the weekend. One minute you’re sitting there reveling in another improbable Cowboys victory while subconsciously trying to suppress the Sunday scaries. And the next an ‘alert’ drops into your phone warning you of the potentially pending doom known as Q3 earnings. Not exactly breaking news there BBG, no need to interrupt the last vestiges of my weekend. But interrupted it was although I’d be far less upset were I a fixed income trader, that lot enjoying a long weekend as bond markets stayed closed today.

There was no doubt that today was always going to be about NFPs. With inflation metrics not improving at the rate people want, this critical gauge of the economy has become heavily watched once again. The number came in higher than expected, and with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.5%, the Fed will need to stay the course. These implications sent futures sharply lower, and the markets reacted even more negatively when the implications became flat out statements – Kashkari & Williams both reiterated the hawkish narrative.

October started on a very positive note, even though the broader macro environment had not really changed. Yes two different central banks surprised investors with their moves. But one was to stem the slide in Gilts (and LDI margin calls), the other only by raising 25bps (which the RBA said they were going to do). The Fed however, is not in a position that warrants a change in their direction, and the +5.5% move in the S&P 500 early this week only cements their determination to tighten financial conditions.

Initially, today felt like a bit of a reign tugger — a pause from the prior 2 sessions of broad based gains. US markets slid lower in early trading, with DXY strength back in play (though well off of the LT resistance at 120), while other risk indicators such as bitcoin were under pressure. The dovish “hope bubble” was seemingly popped by the economic data, which showed better than estimated growth and companies hiring at a solid clip.

The fasten seatbelt sign is on, please remain seated until the sign has been turned off!…  Tuesday trading continuing the rally for a second day in a row this week amongst a stark change of tide from only a few days ago.  The S&P 500 seeing 98.8% of constituents trading higher on the day.  Last week saw 4/5 days into the red while the S&P (amongst a litany of add’l broad indicators) fell to and established new 52-week lows.