Today had all the feels of a Monday as we all prepare for the unofficial close of summer next Monday (Labor Day). Volumes remain muted across the board with the S&P 500 volumes down 25% vs 20d mavg. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed lower on what looks like some profit taking heading into Nvidia earnings. This does not seem surprising, especially given that the S&P was up nearly 2% on the month and within 1% of the all-time highs (next resistance level 5667). Rates remained relatively steady t…

The expectation going into today’s Jackson Hole Symposium was as high as the Tetons. With 100bps of cuts being priced by the markets (over the 3 remaining meetings), Powell did not disappoint as he started his press conference with “The time has come for policy to adjust”. An immediate spike in equites and treasuries (and a drop in the Dollar) ensued, as the markets cheered the expected result. While the question of how much in September remains, the CME data shows a 34% chance of a 50bps cut (…

We’re on track for the lowest volume week YTD, and it sure felt that way today. Snoozeville central as S&P volumes were down 22% compared to the 20-day moving average and net neutral economic data provided little fanfare. The Flash PMIs were mixed and cancelled each other out (solid services vs. weaker manufacturing), while weekly claims and existing home sales were bang inline. The S&P 500 and CCMP both lost some of their shine– down 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively, while other asset classes foun…

The market tried, it tried hard to drum up some volume today but in the end the effort was futile. Despite some relevant earnings this morning, BLS nonfarm payroll revision and July Fed meeting minutes, volumes remain MUTED (to say the least). The S&P 500 rose to close slightly positive on the day on some of the lowest volumes of the year (-31% vs 20d avg) but it is now up for 9 of the past 10 sessions and is firmly above the 50d mavg with its sights set on the ATH of 5667. Also, worth a quick…

As we were on the precipice of breaking a 20-year-old streak, the market had a different plan as we approached the 5600 level. What streak you ask? The SPX has not been up nine consecutive days since November of 2004! Just in case you were wondering the longest consecutive “up” streak was for fourteen days back in April…… of 1971! To think the VIX was at the 60 level two weeks ago to where we are today, just shy of the 16 level is maniacal. Markets have made a habit of getting overextended one…

So, you want to write ‘The View’ (said nobody ever) on a late August Monday as two-week vacations kicking off in earnest and the highlight of the week coming at the very end straight from the mountains of Wyoming. I am planning an upcoming holiday myself so maintaining focus will be of the utmost importance. The focus lately has been on buying stocks, as a very wobbly market has suddenly gotten sturdy, the S&P logging its 8th consecutive up day with breadth strength as well. The lighter volumes…

We’re now halfway through an August that has been anything but sleepy. Though if the OOO bounce backs are any indication, particularly in conjunction with the VIX closing back below 15, we’re certainly on calmer footing heading into the back half of the month. ‘Reassuring’ is the word I continue to use to describe this week’s economic data (inline CPI and PPI, robust retail sales), but truthfully it feels rather apt considering two weeks ago we were hearing calls for an emergency 50 bps rate cu…

The US rebound continued today and after today’s close, the S&P 500 is back above where it ended July. The end of July coincided with a recession scare via the jobs data, which also pushed trading positions to be unwound in dramatic fashion, but with the VIX back to 15.15, volatility has subsided. This week has been important in calming those hard landing fears, first with the PPI and CPI, and then with today’s Retail Sales which rose 1% versus the expected 0.4%. The data shows the consumer rem…

To Cut or not to cut? 25bps or 50bps? 100bps by Year-End? So many questions and unknowns remain, as we are in limbo, technically speaking we aren’t in a recession albeit the SAHM-Recession rule was triggered with NFP week before last, the conundrum of data is head-scratching to say the least. Nonetheless inflation is cooling, first time CPI dips below 3% since March of 2021 to 2.9%, however essentials such as Car Insurance, Transportation, Hospital Services and Rent remain elevated. As far as…

After consecutive trading days with dismal volume, main US indexes were boosted higher thanks to a welcomed soft PPI print this morning. We were confident that the economic data this week would be underneath a microscope with data prints determining the outcome of the market for the day. Today confirms that theory as core PPI YoY came at 2.4% (est. 2.6%) for July, sending US treasury rates lower and Indexes higher. We shouldn’t get out over our skis just yet as tomorrow morning brings, more imp…