Two Fifteen

Two Fifteen – 23 June 2020

A better day all round today with finally plenty to talk about at both the macro and the micro level. Let’s start with the macro and worth noting the Navarro comments (China/US trade deal being “over”) which saw a 500 points drop in the Dow futures before the denial which saw a sharp rally. By the time Europe was open things had settled and investors focussed instead on the various PMI data for the Eurozone. These can be summed up as "headlines strong, detail a bit more of a concern". We've had France and the UK nudge back into expansionary territory. Germany and the Eurozone still below 50 at the headline level but a lot better in May than they were in April. The devil in the detail though and jobs are still being cut on balance (manufacturing especially), inflows of new business and orders still negative, prices still falling. Underlying demand remains very subdued. Furlough schemes masking a lot of the employment pain. So less bad for sure but too soon to get too carried away.

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