Zero US economic data today so let’s talk about the Canadians. They have been a hot topic this week in terms of interest rate hikes, employment data and nearly taking out the entire east coast of the US with smoke. After raising rates for the first time since January earlier this week(pre-cursor to next week’s Fed, probably not), Canada posted a loss of 17.3k jobs in May and a rise in the unemployment rate. The unexpected job loss sent US Treasury rates lower for a brief period before recoverin…

Stocks pared premarket gains after ADP employment data for May showed a gain of 278k (est. 170k) fueling concerns that a persistent employment market will keep inflation around current levels. However, unit labor costs showed a growth of 4.2% for Q1 2023. This was well below estimates of 6% and provides support for a rate hike pause come June. Stocks remained flat through the early session until ISM data was released, sending stocks (most notably tech) higher and treasury yields lower. Most of…

Frustration is building in the markets as indexes continued their slide from yesterday. Speaker McCarthy used the credit card analogy to explain the debt crisis once again but continued negotiation failures by both sides have resulted in no progress. We inch closer to default each day and risk recession as Yellen once again reiterated that it is “highly likely” the treasury will run out of money early June. The likelihood of a default is no longer zero as progress on the core issues, government…

A new hope (the best Star Wars btw) has emerged as negotiations regarding the debt ceiling seem to be making progress. Biden has decided to cut his trip to Asia short (sorry Australia) so he can return to the White House and focus on the resolving the debt ceiling before the US defaults. Some have hope that a deal may even done by the end of the weekend, but I won’t hold my breath. Main US indexes were relieved on the news and rose throughout the session. It was not enough to break the range th…

One of our esteemed colleagues summed up this week’s index performance perfectly with “ I can go away for two days and catch up quickly when I return cause the S&P has only changed by 9 bps”. Here we are once again closing out the week below 4200. Major indexes faded and US treasury rates rose into the weekend on long term inflation worries. Today’s U of Michigan data through a tiny wrench into those planning for rate cuts. 5-10yr expectations rose to 3.2% from the previous 3%. The highest leve…

Do I need to even break down today’s performances for the main US indexes? Another economic data print and another day of sideways trading with mega cap tech outperforming. Almost all PPI metrics were down with core PPI (3.2%) decreasing for the fourteenth consecutive month. Initial jobless claims increased to 264k, the highest report in nineteenth months but it was not enough to entice volatility in the markets. Futures remained relatively unchanged after the data release, causing interest ra…

First day of May! What did you expect? Elevated trading volumes, endless news feed and the S&P flying through 4200 on a day where most of the European and Asian markets were closed. Nope! Instead, we got exactly what we knew was coming, low volumes and major US indexes little changed. On the bright side, the S&P 500 futures briefly broke above 4200 during the afternoon session for the first time since February, so we have that going for us. A rainy weekend here in the Northeastern US set the th…

Hopes that Big Tech earnings would drive US indexes out of their current ranges faded today. After another round of mixed earnings, traders looked to Microsoft and Google to lead them through the session, but it was not enough. Poor breadth in the S&P acted as an anchor. With back-to-back 80% down days, early session gains were fighting against a tide moving heavily against them. The S&P was not able to hold on, but the NDX was able to keep its head above water into the close. Semiconductors re…

Well here we are again, singing the same ole song. The indexes continue to be stuck in their ranges and there doesn’t seem to be an end in sight. I am starting to feel a little like Phil (Bill Murray) in Groundhog Day. Main US indexes fought between positive and negative returns for the entire session before closing slightly in the green. Traders continue to process mixed earning reports and light economic data. S&P Global US PMI was released this morning with manufacturing (50.4), services (53…

Stop me if you have heard this story before. Equity indexes remain in their ranges. After starting the morning out in the red, indexes pared off losses by midday and traded flat through the remainder of the session. With little to no US economic data this week, traders are left to wonder what might happen if indexes were to trade out of their ranges. Earning continue to be the focus of the street as we start wade deeper into the water. Morgan Stanley (+0.66%) rounded out the big US bank earning…