Investors glimpsed a light at the end of the ‘higher for longer’ tunnel today. A data-filled morning evidenced an economy that isn’t overheating but isn’t necessarily slowing either. In the context of previous reports showing outsized job growth and fast-growing wages, the headline NFP figure of 175k job growth (240k expected) received a warm welcome. In addition, services ISM contracted for a third straight month, falling below 50 for the first time since December 2022. At face value the data…

Yesterday was hectic with multiple potential market outcomes from multiple sources. FOMC, economic data and earnings created a busy/ volatile session and the main indexes closed in the red. Today’s calendar was mostly earnings driven, and traders decided that Powell’s non-pivot (to hikes) was enough to add to some positions. Futures were positive when the US got to their desks this morning and that trend continued all day. The S&P 500 added 91bps and the Nasdaq 1.51% with most sectors closing i…

Where do I begin? On a day where traders were graced with headline after headline, it was clear everyone’s focus was on the Fed’s tone following a lack of progress against inflation. Before we get to the headliner (the Fed), the morning kicked off with a plethora of earnings. Amazon (+2.2%) provided the MAG7 with a nice lift after AWS logged some serious strength with sales +17% y/y and guided Q2 revenue in line with street estimates. Then there was some cause for concern with regards to the co…

NYC is on fire right now. And we’re not talking about the weather, although yesterday was blazing. Getting a dinner reservation at a ‘hot spot’ is near impossible. The bars and clubs (from what I hear) are jam packed and the two local sports teams (NY Knicks and Rangers) are in the playoffs and have Madison Square Garden as the place to be. Markets are envious by comparison. Stocks have cooled off considerably since top-ticking at the start of the month and it’s a meeting on the first of May th…

It was a bit of a lackluster session in Monday trading today ahead of another heavy week for both single stocks and macro alike with ~175 S&P companies reporting earnings as well as the May 1 FOMC meeting on Wednesday. While the main US indices ultimately ended higher (and basically where they started), it wasn’t first without a sudden move lower in the final hour after the US Treasury released a surprising increase to $243b in their estimates for borrowing costs in the current quarter, which…

The last two trading days have been a tale of different tapes due to investor responses from earnings and economics. Yesterday, Meta guidance and GDP/ quarterly PCE data provided the negative impetus for a red tape. Today Alphabet and Google, along with a somewhat inline monthly PCE print, fed a positive reversal. Net result, indexes/ sectors made it through a busy week and with a gain (S&P 500 +1.02%). With the next FOMC meeting on Wednesday, investors are not expecting much from Chairman Powe…

GDP threw a wrench in the works for both investors and the Fed. As if inflation wasn’t difficult enough to tame, is this market now contending with an economy that’s slowing? The dreaded S-word (stagflation) was thrown around as the Q1 reading introduced the perfect storm of weak growth, sticky inflation, and a tight labor market. But equities shrugged off early losses to close modestly in the red and there’s an argument to be made that April’s slide could be chocked up to a healthy reset of in…

Ever try drinking out of a firehose? Chances are you haven’t but if you had, your experience would likely mirror trying to wrap your head around the deluge of earnings that hit today. Before one was barely nestled in their seat, it was as if Vin Diesel pumped out another movie, F&F, Earnings Avalanche. And tomorrow is set to bring another heavy dose. With the US benchmark having its best 2-day effort in some time, this afforded investors to take a step back and assess the onslaught of corporate…

What 6-day losing streak?! Investors got even more hopeful about a V-shaped recovery today as equities moved well into the green for a second day running. The S&P closed +1.2% and the Nasdaq closed +1.6%, while treasuries were mixed along the curve. The DXY saw 37bps of weakness and Brent rebounded 1.7%, thanks to waning geopolitical concerns. A slew of earnings and dovish economic data gave equities the strength to rally ahead of Tesla’s report post the close, the first of the Mag 7. Flash PM…

Last week was Geopolitics and the Fed, this week a sizable slate of earnings, (40% of the SPX to be exact, four of the Mag7) and pertinent Econ Data (PCE and GDP). On the earnings front investors have eyes on Tesla’s numbers tomorrow and if the revered Elon Musk has any commentary to address declining sales and bolstering guidance. While in the Magnificent category earnings from Meta (Wednesday), and Google /Microsoft (Thursday) will set the tone for the sessions ahead. As I ponder on how corpo…