Equities marched higher in today’s session after a lighter = better CPI print earlier this morning. Headline inflation fell to 4.0% in May vs 4.1% expected and 4.9% prior due in large part to declining energy prices. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.4% which was inline with expectations and prior. And while it doesn’t seem enough to change the expectations for a hike tomorrow, we know that the core number is still too high. Consensus has centered around a pause for tomorrow’s rate decis…

“Every day begins with an act of courage and hope: getting out of bed.” – Mason Cooley

Zero US economic data today so let’s talk about the Canadians. They have been a hot topic this week in terms of interest rate hikes, employment data and nearly taking out the entire east coast of the US with smoke. After raising rates for the first time since January earlier this week(pre-cursor to next week’s Fed, probably not), Canada posted a loss of 17.3k jobs in May and a rise in the unemployment rate. The unexpected job loss sent US Treasury rates lower for a brief period before recoverin…

An idle mind is the devil’s playground and sadly things have been far too idle recently. And boy is the devil playing…yesterday’s surprise hike from the BoC lent credence to a similar move by the Fed (acc to some). This in turn helped further fuel a move into the value/cyclical set, culminating in the best 5-day performance for the R2K in 2 years. Today? We got jobless claims amidst a relatively dry economic board and the ‘hike’ in that data saw a slump in yields across the board, with tech res…

Smoke filled skies over the East Coast gave an eerie feel to the day (https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/worldtradecenter/?cam=skyline_g), but that was not the reason for the investor rotation out of mega-tech. The NYFANG added 17% to its year-to-date performance in May and has single handedly supported the S&P 500 (and Nasdaq), giving traders a reason to take some money out of the group and add to some of the underperformers. The easy mark is the Russell 2000, and the index added another 1.7…

When Goldman reports panic buying (overall BUYS to SELLS at the 98th percentile), the CNN Fear and Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed”, investors are actively hedging “melt up” risk (Friday saw the largest notional SPX call volume ever) and tech is stretched to max extremes of overbought territory, is it time to SELL? Apparently, not. US stocks vacillated between gains and losses today, but ultimately finished the day in positive territory. The small cappers were the clear winners as the RTY was…

Choppy trading ending lower on a quiet Monday had indexes with mixed performance throughout the day. The bias was higher to start, as fueled by softer ISM data in support of the Fed’s “skip” narrative leading into the June meeting while keeping options open for thereafter. Despite having entered the quiet period, the Fed team will get a look at CPI/PPI next week before their meeting, and that will keep traders on edge into the 14th. The S&P rallied towards a new 52-week high into midday (4305…

First things first – last week’s Wheel of Fortune competition (guess the puzzle w/ no letters – 80s theme song the clue) was won in blazingly fast fashion by Jujhar Sohi – as promised, recognition in the View! Well done! The short week has now concluded and it was the bears getting rick-rolled as equities took another leg higher and further distanced themselves from what was once known as resistance. After trading sideways for some time, the market has entered you cant stop it you can only hope…

Stocks pared premarket gains after ADP employment data for May showed a gain of 278k (est. 170k) fueling concerns that a persistent employment market will keep inflation around current levels. However, unit labor costs showed a growth of 4.2% for Q1 2023. This was well below estimates of 6% and provides support for a rate hike pause come June. Stocks remained flat through the early session until ISM data was released, sending stocks (most notably tech) higher and treasury yields lower. Most of…

Some love lost in markets today as the S&P closed below 4200 for some month-end profit taking. The risk-off sentiment was initially sparked by a weaker China Manufacturing PMI number falling deeper into contractionary territory overnight. A hotter JOLTS Job Openings figure then added further downward pressure on shares mid-morning. With fresh, new evidence confirming that the imbalance of demand for workers is still outpacing the supply of available employees, the fight to cool persistent wa…