Despite a plethora of economic data today, US indexes lacked conviction in either direction paring early morning gains on the backs of CPI data before closing in the red. The S&P continues to toy with the 4100 level as it flipped over it multiple times during today’s session, closing at 4091. CPI was the focus of traders in the morning, coming in at 5% (est. 5.1%) for the month of March. The lowest level since May 2021 and the ninth sequential decline (MoM). A more concerning data point is core…

If only Uncle Warren was buying up a few firms in the US, perhaps we could’ve had a bit of a better result. We woke up to Mr. Buffett passing out bouquets (and gobs of cash) overseas but his generous spirit translated to little domestically. It feels as if every week we’re readying for some big data point or decision that stunts market activity and this week’s impediment comes in the form of CPI data coming tomorrow. Given it’s pertinence to the Wizard of Oz/Fed, at least you can say investor r…

US markets started out under water and proved to be quite buoyant on the day as they gradually wandered higher until the S&P finally closed above ground in the final minute(s) in largely eventless Easter Monday trading. The Russell2k outperformed the Dow, the Dow outperformed the S&P, and the S&P outperformed the Nasdaq (the only index to close *barely in the red). Volumes remained depressed, as to be expected, and both breadth and performance were mixed with 69% of S&P pointing higher and th…

We can’t ignore the apparent economic deterioration. Inflation is still at multi-decade highs, two of the three largest bank collapses in U.S. history just happened, and the Fed funds rate is up to 5%. And yet stocks seemed perky today. The S&P started lower this morning, but turned higher in the afternoon, closing above an important 4100 technical level. Despite this positive ending to the four-day week, the overall “net” sentiment still remains bearish, thanks to the aforementioned larger ec…

Markets may be trending away from the “bad is good” theme and heading towards “bad is bad” or at least “bad is not good but also not bad”. During this time of rising rates, bad economic data was previously looked at as positive for the markets because it would lead to the Fed pausing rate hikes and possibly pivoting to rate cuts. Today’s reaction by the US markets to the ISM Services data suggests that the previous theme no longer holds water. After posting the largest advance since 2020 in Jan…

On a recent vacation, the course I was playing at assigned me a caddie that went by the name ‘Vegas.’ Right then I knew it was going to be a good day. (The score relative to the enjoyable time had was, to borrow an oft-used word of late, ‘mismatched.) But Vegas was offering more than just advice on club selection and before my approach on #1 (stuck it), I was hearing about his option trading and how he’d moved to a longer-dated strategy because he needed more theta. Of course. We could use some…

The picture of uncertainty –> S&P: Up-Down-Flat-Up. Dow: Up-Drift-Hold-Up. Nasdaq: Down, hold, (failed) attempt to rally. Markets were mixed, struggling to find clear direction today and not just because it’s the first day of Q2 following a lovely weekend, or because this week is a shortened holiday week. Today’s market response feels apropos given the increasing number of respective balls we are juggling lately. Ruling the headlines today was OPEC+ surprise decision to cut production despite…

The quarter has ended! And what a perfect way to end the quarter with everybody’s favorite economic data point, PCE. The Core Deflator YoY came in at 4.6% below estimates of 4.7% which helped propel major US indexes into the green early. While inflation remains persistent and near stagnant, a decrease was a welcomed sight for traders. There are still some concerning components in the PCE data, services continue to make up much of the yearly change. Powell has repeatedly stated that the service…

No news is good news? The calm before the storm? Traders seem to be waiting for the next shoe to drop, while simultaneously mining data to support the theory that we are in a bull market. And any perceived calm in the markets just gives The Fed more fodder to hike rates. Thus, we have been stuck in the same range between 3800 and 4200 since last May. Further, the S&P has crossed above 4000 13x since the start of 2022. Running to stand still is the accurate expression, I suppose. The Fed’s Colli…

The confluence of steadier headlines surrounding the banks and a calendar heading towards month/ quarter end gave support to equities today. Indexes moved higher throughout the trading session, and if you glance at the intraday moves in S&P/ NDX 100 futures from yesterday’s close, it was a steady incline. The support helped push every sector to close in the green, with Semis (SOX +3.27%) and Tech (XLK +2.1%) outperforming. That first group got a boost from Micron (MU +7.2%) better than feared e…