To hold or not to hold… THAT is the question! Fed week is now upon us, and the landscape has changed dramatically from where we stood just 2 weeks ago. The echoes of higher for longer are a faint and distant memory now as the banking system braces to stabilize itself and the broader economy with it. Monday trading served as a day of (needed) reprieve after many were hard at work over the weekend to find a suitable(ish?) mate for CS, though FRC (-47%) still getting hit after another credit do…

As humans, we may have a natural bias/conditioning to want to end things on a good note.. And while today was not exactly that, we are going to attempt to keep things positive and point out the fact that on the week we ended up over +1.43%, so… not that bad! And while St Patrick’s Day is known for its celebration of green, March 17, 2023 equity markets did not quite get the memo as they fell decidedly lower into the red and instead passed the shamrock over to the safer FICC counterparts. Gold…

And round and round we go… If we lacked conviction prior, where does that put us now?! Markets were volatile, jittery, and choppy today- as expected. After initially swinging firmly back into the positive to start, we then faded off the highs into the afternoon on news that a Russian fighter jet collided with a US drone over the Black Sea. Ultimately, we were able to regain steam in the final hour and rally back to just shy of session highs into the close. Regardless, the wind was blowing…

A retreat in US markets today after returning from a long holiday weekend. To be honest, this downdraft feels like a welcomed moment of sanity- and perhaps the extra rest allowing further time/space for markets to digest and react to the current landscape we are navigating. As the shorter-term trend is now pointing, we took another break from fighting the Fed and surrendered to a higher-for-longer reality as markets fell lower. PMIs hitting the tape this morning and showing a robust global e…

Monday proved to be another setup day with muted activity and volumes, not not SuperBowl related, but with a fresh, and clutch, CPI print on the horizon for tomorrow, little incentive to add additional risk. The path of least resistance led us higher on the margin today, but think it is fair to call it rangebound trading currently. Our charts team citing this the fancy way: S&P has had seven 1% swings in the last 5 days, including two 2% swings, but we’re back to where we were 5 days ago and e…

You know what ‘they’ say… “Don’t fight the Fed!”… But the market really has been more of a fighter than a lover lately in this regard. For today, however, the fighters ultimately conceded as fatigue set in- even despite a strong setup out of the gates- sending the S&P lower on the day to close below 4100. Markets traded in a traditional upper left to lower right formation, ending the day near session lows albeit on more muted volumes. Perhaps simply a healthy pullback as we try to grapple wi…

A moment of pause in markets today. Lower. We’ll call it a healthy pullback, void of any major catalysts, amidst an otherwise quiet session as markets and participants take the day to sharpen their tools for what lies ahead this week. All sectors, save for one on the margin, closing in the red with ~80% of the S&P falling lower in Monday trading. In sector performance, some minor reversion with YTD laggards (+Staples, Utilities) floating to the relative ‘top’ and Energy, Tech leading the decline.

US markets in rally mode today as not much from the newswires to interfere. A number of Asian markets are closed for Lunar New Year for at least a majority of the week AND the Fed is now in their quiet period into the Feb 1 FOMC decision. This particular combo leaving less noise to be heard as we kick off a new week where earnings will take the lead role. One positive note that did hit was IMAX reporting 2nd best opening day for Chinese New Year ever- setting a better undertone for the week ahead as well. While it may feel like an exciting feat for the S&P to close above 4k, let’s remember that we were here not that long ago!

A Tale of 2 Banks seems a fitting title for the day as MS and GS moved in (nearly) equal and (decidedly) opposite directions today as the headliners in the resumption of earnings season following a lovely long-holiday-weekend for those of us here in the States. The former rallied (+5.9%) on an inline set of results with the highlight on its wealth mgmt division, while the latter got punished (-6.44%) for falling short on topline revs and higher expenses.

Powell stole the show today… Sometimes it’s all about what you DON’T say, and today certainly felt like that was the (bull) case for markets. Side-stepping much of any word on economic or monetary policy, aside from a generic affirmation that the Fed is tightly focused on meeting inflation and employment goals, the Chairman instead shifted the attention to establishing boundaries around the Fed’s limited role in climate regulation.