Today was a good day to…look ahead to the rest of the week. Maybe it was having CNBC morning staple Joe Kernan on in the afternoon that threw the day off. Unlikely excuse but today left us grasping for straws some as markets seemed to similarly shrug off the start to the week. The momentum created from last week’s unexpected thrust higher carried over to today, at least at the start. Factory and durable goods orders reported inline and most importantly, didn’t signal extensive growth, that bala…

We had an internal team-building exercise this week, culminating in a task where everyone was tasked with performing a motivational speech about some ridiculous topic on the spot. Awkward much? (I had to ‘motivate’ a team of baby Yodas to win a soccer match to give you an idea.) Some of the overarching themes of the exercise were to get comfortable with being uncomfortable and overcommunication. One would almost think the Fed was taking a page from this playbook. Non-voting and voting members a…

The market has zigged when many have expected it to zag – in 2023 terms that’s translated to the market ripping out of the gates to everyone’s surprise. And the economic data that’s accompanied it has, for much of the year, doubled up on said astonishment. Hopes for a better outcome than the extended inversions we’ve heard so much about would indicate were beginning to materialize. And they still very well may but cracks are beginning to emerge as the market goes from underestimating the Feds m…

It’s not easy getting answers these days. Take the US for example. We’ve basically become a skeet-shooting enthusiast with the way it’s taking UFOs out of the sky lately. And yet, according to POTUS, we’re still unable to say what they are exactly. Not the most comforting of updates! Markets have been similarly beguiling, with equities universally going better on the back of a China reopening that’s yet to fully materialize and a rate hike cycle that seems to have the goal posts pushed out as e…

I thought Tik-Tok was China’s surveillance tool, isn’t a balloon getting just a little greedy? Not to mention lazy; worst covert op ever? At least we know one thing that’s going to have a hard landing. As for the market, the debate continues, participants toggling back and forth between hard and soft when it comes to the economy and by extension the market. At least until Friday when the bonzo jobs report brought ‘no landing’ into the lexicon. Predictions for H1 ’23 were far from sanguine, and…

Ok then, this year seems hellbent on disproving the theory that objects in your mirror are closer than they appear. Last year is starting to feel like a distant memory rather than merely one that ended a month ago.. A quick stat to provide some context: a > 5% move in January after a down year the year before has happened only 5 times. The S&P 500 has been up EVERY time and by an average of a whopping +29.7% (45.0%, 23.1%, 20.1%, 31.5% and 28.9%). That’s a SPICY meat-uh-ball.

Well this was an interesting day. Mega-cap tech has long been the apple of investor’s eyes last year notwithstanding of course. All equities had a rough go of it but none more so than the growthy high fliers. 2023 has proven to be a new year for stocks the world over, and after a slow-ish start, tech has found it’s footing. Not even a stumble from Microsoft earnings last night seemed to present little more than a temporary obstacle to where the market wants to go.

Week 2 of January has begun and those old habits are already starting to creep in. Dry January? A pipe dream – best case scenario the month winds up being damp. New Year’s resolutions have no doubt gone by the wayside already. Unless you’re like yours truly where past goals of learning a new language have morphed into drinking more water. It’s about being practical people. That has been a struggle for investors long before today, what with the bad is good, how good is bad narrative that’s plaguing portfolios these days.

We’re back! Bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, refreshed and energized (ok maybe not quite just yet) as we turn the page on what was a difficult year for all; and that’s putting it mildly. Historical returns in the first month of the year have augured well for a full year’s performance and so this morning’s green futures were met with a bit of optimism, cautious at most though. An easing of infection waves in China and a below consensus reading on German inflation (remember it was the ECB that was largely behind the December kerfuffle) had their respective markets firmly in the green.

Time for a bit of context? The forecasted funds rate for the end of 2022 at the end of 2021 was 0.9%. Point being, prognostications can change. And in a big way. But therein may lie the problem. The Fed is contending with some credibility issues due to their lagged reaction to the plague that is inflation. After a roundly interpreted as dovish speech last week, with a series of disinflationary data points that followed (PPI notwithstanding-ish), the week was set up for that narrative to continue.