Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 17 April 2024

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Yields this, dollar that but today we got to ignore them (well as much as possible) and look under the hoods of some of Europe’s biggest companies. Far more interesting than what ECB speakers have to say about rate cuts and inflation targets as this was a look at how these big heavyweights have fared in the first quarter with yields elevated and the consumer surely coming under a pressure!? LVMH bounced 3% after results that were maybe not as bad as feared post some recent moves in the likes of…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 16 April 2024

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One of the side benefits of hiring the next generation of employees is you get reminded of things from your youth that have long been forgotten. Today’s edition was the song Alive, Alert, Awake! Market participants are trained to be all of the above but the last word of that “song” is enthusiastic and that element has been somewhat missing, at least if you’re still riding the bull market express. The month that is supposed to bring about spring and blossoming flowers instead has things looking…

Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 16 April 2024

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The Snapshot doesn’t dwell on the weather too much for obvious reasons but last night was ridiculous – 4 seasons not in a day, but in an hour as I was caught in Hail, sun and then rain on my way home. The one we’re most concerned about is certainly the Winds that have been changing the past few days in Equities and we were certainly a little rocked by the moves after we left for the day. The Stoxx 600 opened down over >1% with a broad based risk off stroke of the brush but never really felt lik…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 15 April 2024

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Weakness in US equities continued today as US treasury yields marched higher on strong consumer data. March retail sales came in hotter than expected with the headline number coming in at 0.7% MoM (est. 0.4%) and sales ex auto at 1.1% MoM (est. 0.5%). In addition to the jump in March retails sales, all the February sales data was revised upwards. Traders watched at the US10YR climbed firmly above 4.5% and the US2YR bang its head against the resistance level of 5%. We have not seen these rate le…

Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 15 April 2024

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A bit of a spring cleanout in the Morrison household at the weekend and the outcome was despite the amount of arguments it creates it is a very therapeutic process. It’s an interesting experiment so we created a rule to make things simpler: it didn’t matter about how much it cost, if we hadn’t worn/used in a year and don’t envisage that changing in the next year it was for recycling/charity shop. Fair is Fair. Now I have no experience of investment management but this felt a little bit like Equ…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 12 April 2024

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Markets sang a different tune this week. A massive hawkish repricing in yields and Fed expectations reset the rate cut goal posts again after Wednesday’s hot CPI and a deteriorating geopolitical landscape rocked the boat for investors in today’s session. But alas headlines only ever scratch the surface and in truth, there was no shortage of culprits for today’s choppy moves. We started the day with a series of earnings reports from US banks (more below), followed by a jump in Michigan inflation…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 11 April 2024

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I suppose if you have rented a house, bought groceries or filled a car with gas recently, you knew that inflation was not heading lower. And because those three remain high, affording a car is a tougher proposition (those prices actually did fall). Anyway, that is yesterday’s news and equities have quickly moved past another higher-than-expected CPI print. Today’s session started with another inflation read via the PPI which saw the y/y datapoint move sequentially higher. But while the broader…

Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 11 April 2024

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Another choppy day in European Equity markets without learning a huge amount as the Stoxx 600 fluctuated between small gains and losses but ended lower on the day to the tune of 44bps. A macro sort of day following yesterday’s large moves within the FX and Fixed Income worlds and it still feels like this Equity market is playing second fiddle. There was a small pick up in volumes today but post yesterday’s shifts and today’s ECB meeting you would have probably expected activity to be higher.. T…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 10 April 2024

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If we were playing Jeopardy, the Daily Double Answer would be: “Not many, though the odds of rate cuts are now 50% in June and 88% in July.” The question then would have to be “What are the conclusions of today’s FOMC minutes?” Other “answers” in response to today’s risk off mood pertained to hotter CPI prints and a disappointing 10Y auction. In addition, a Bloomberg report that Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israel could be imminent did little to help optimism. It’s noteworthy that The Fed ar…

Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 10 April 2024

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A gorgeous day in London today and there was a definite temptation to spend the morning sat outside a coffee shop, reading the paper and watching the world go by – enjoy the simpler things in life – It was that kind of morning. No real reason to log on until 1 and get primed and ready for the CPI print which did indeed go on to dictate the day. March CPI was hot across the board though the breakdown was actually quite muted – Energy up 1.1% on the month vs 2.3% in February; Shelter was still 0…