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Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 5 April 2023

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I hope everyone’s got some nice plans for the weekend because the quiet week has turned not-so-quiet over the past 24 hours. The only real time of the year where all developed markets in Europe celebrate a bank holiday together and a chance for a (much needed) break for everyone involved. The out of office replies to this week Snapshot’s a gentle reminder that a lot of people have taken this week off and I imagine there will be similar amounts next week. That created quite a messy tape where th…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 4 April 2023

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On a recent vacation, the course I was playing at assigned me a caddie that went by the name ‘Vegas.’ Right then I knew it was going to be a good day. (The score relative to the enjoyable time had was, to borrow an oft-used word of late, ‘mismatched.) But Vegas was offering more than just advice on club selection and before my approach on #1 (stuck it), I was hearing about his option trading and how he’d moved to a longer-dated strategy because he needed more theta. Of course. We could use some…

Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 4 April 2023

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The market failed to get out of second gear today, and some would argue it was stuck in first as the culmination of a very tough Q1 and a 4 day easter break on the horizon took its toll on enthusiasm, volumes, moves and everything that this Equity market usually gives us in spades. The Stoxx 600 limped to a small loss on the day despite the Euro Stoxx 50, CAC and DAX all hitting intraday 12mo highs though it was hard to read anything into it as the volumes just weren’t there to back it up. I ev…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 3 April 2023

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The picture of uncertainty –> S&P: Up-Down-Flat-Up. Dow: Up-Drift-Hold-Up. Nasdaq: Down, hold, (failed) attempt to rally. Markets were mixed, struggling to find clear direction today and not just because it’s the first day of Q2 following a lovely weekend, or because this week is a shortened holiday week. Today’s market response feels apropos given the increasing number of respective balls we are juggling lately. Ruling the headlines today was OPEC+ surprise decision to cut production despite…

Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 3 April 2023

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Quite an emotional weekend in the Morrison household as my daughter turned 1. The advice given to us in the lead up was this is a celebration for you, not her and I took that quite literally. 25 friends and babies were invited into my small flat to celebrate…Put the babies in the ball pit, make sure there are plenty of drinks and you can’t go wrong…can you? Luckily this is a shortened week as I’m definitely too old for Sunday celebrations but its always good to make the most of these moments an…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 31 March 2023

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The quarter has ended! And what a perfect way to end the quarter with everybody’s favorite economic data point, PCE. The Core Deflator YoY came in at 4.6% below estimates of 4.7% which helped propel major US indexes into the green early. While inflation remains persistent and near stagnant, a decrease was a welcomed sight for traders. There are still some concerning components in the PCE data, services continue to make up much of the yearly change. Powell has repeatedly stated that the service…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 30 March 2023

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No news is good news? The calm before the storm? Traders seem to be waiting for the next shoe to drop, while simultaneously mining data to support the theory that we are in a bull market. And any perceived calm in the markets just gives The Fed more fodder to hike rates. Thus, we have been stuck in the same range between 3800 and 4200 since last May. Further, the S&P has crossed above 4000 13x since the start of 2022. Running to stand still is the accurate expression, I suppose. The Fed’s Colli…

Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 30 March 2023

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Dear oh dear that was a tricky day. We didn’t get the sense that desks were overly busy but the Equity markets decided it would move in serious fashion with some pockets faring better than others. With Month and Quarter end tomorrow things sometimes have a knack of looking a bit strange and Easter holidays have already begun for some lucky people so it did feel like there were a few more absentees than normal. Always a good time to reflect and look back on what has been a broadly good quarter f…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 29 March 2023

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The confluence of steadier headlines surrounding the banks and a calendar heading towards month/ quarter end gave support to equities today. Indexes moved higher throughout the trading session, and if you glance at the intraday moves in S&P/ NDX 100 futures from yesterday’s close, it was a steady incline. The support helped push every sector to close in the green, with Semis (SOX +3.27%) and Tech (XLK +2.1%) outperforming. That first group got a boost from Micron (MU +7.2%) better than feared e…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 28 March 2023

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There are a few axioms in this business that can at least help contribute to a long and fruitful career. One is, don’t go out on a Monday night. Sure it may sound great in theory (it doesn’t) but it sets a pretty arduous tone for the rest of the week. (I’ll give you one guess as to what I was up to last night.) Another one is don’t fight the Fed. And yet the market seems to be fixing for a showdown as it remains steadfast in its belief rate cuts are coming as soon as June. The only issue is Pow…