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Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 14 March 2023

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Well I think we were due a day of relative calm having had 3 of the livelier sessions of recent memory and though there were certainly early wobbles we managed to see those off and rally into the afternoon. The Stoxx 600 closed up +1.5%, reversing some of the losses from the past two days but the move certainly looked more like a rebound than anything with serious conviction. I’m not sure the market is any closer to working out whether the fallout from the SVB saga could spread to other parts,…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 13 March 2023

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What is it about March that seems to keep bringing balance sheet-changing events to rattle market participants? In March 2020, Covid shocked the world, as well as major indices. In March 2021, the Archegos scandal uprooted a multitude of major players. And now we have the collapse of SVB, which will surely have implications that spread farther and wider than we can currently predict. If the financial crisis had started in March, we would seriously have some questions.

Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 13 March 2023

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No way of getting away from it there is a lot going on right now isn’t there? It would be a lie to say we’re on top of it all, we try of course, but there are new angles, stories and moves popping up everywhere and things are moving at such an aggressive pace I have no doubt the Snapshot will be out of date by the time it is read/deleted. Cracks in system have been appearing and growing over the past 3 days and it felt like today was a day when risk managers, unaware of where this could lead, a…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 10 March 2023

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The biggest US banking failure since the 2008 financial crisis. Following the failure of Silvergate Financial earlier this week, SVB Financial was taken over today by the FDIC. Making it the second largest US bank failure in history behind Washington Mutual and the first failure since October 2020. After announcing a sale of securities valuing over $20b and a share offering to raise $2b on Thursday to support finances, depositors began requesting large outflows to limit their exposure to the ba…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 9 March 2023

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What started out as a slow day with some small economic data and indexes trading sideways, ended up as a brutal day for banks with indexes down nearly two percent. Let’s starts off with the data, Initial Jobless Claims came in at 211k above estimates of 195k. In the typical “bad news is good news” theme, futures erased a 30-bps pre-opening deficit and opened the day in the green. Rates followed in suit with the US10Y (3.913%) dropping 75 bps pre-open and closing below four percent. The US2Y (4…

Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 9 March 2023

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I can’t remember exactly what I was doing on January 18th but I think it was something quite boring with it being in the middle of dry January. The Stoxx 600 had raced away to an 8% rise on the year, the mood was bullish and we were well ahead of other indices around the world. Fast forward 7 weeks, 36 trading sessions and you get to today and we are trading at virtually the same level. In that time we’ve had earnings season come and go, central banks raise rates and chime in wherever possible,…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 8 March 2023

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The markets chopped all day as a hawkish leaning ADP and JOLTS were offset by a dovish Powell tweak in which he said everything remains data dependent. Mr. P did largely reiterate his remarks from yesterday, but the fact remains that “the US economy has been remarkably resilient to higher rates” and that gives our friends at The Fed more ammunition for a 50-bp rate hike later this month. ADP came in better than expected at 242k (vs. 200k) and prompted a bit of short covering and Treasuries. How…

Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 8 March 2023

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Today sees the world celebrate International Women’s Day, and whilst we should be embracing all walks of life daily, it is a great moment to remind ourselves that there is always more that can be done to promote gender equality. We were particularly pleased that Redburn’s very own Kathryn Stonebank was interviewed as part of the ‘In conversation with…’ series with The TRADE discussing her journey to the execution desk. IWD’s theme for 2023 is #EmbraceEquity to promote true inclusion, understand…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 7 March 2023

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And it’s only his first day of his testimony. Yesterday’s price action in the markets was a good foretelling of what was to come. Stocks could not hold onto early gains ahead of Powell’s testimony to Congress, and when he did speak today, he did not mince words. “Economy’s strength suggests peak rate will be higher than previously anticipated” and, “Fed is prepared to speed up rate rises if warranted”. CME data had a 72% expectation for a 25bps rise on March 22 pre-Powell, it stood at 64% for 5…

Daily Snapshot

Daily Snapshot – 7 March 2023

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Greggs results today and a new tradition of mandatory Greggs’ breakfast Bacon Rolls/Sausage Rolls/Vegan Sausage rolls every quarter just to get a real ‘I-know-what-this-company-is-all-about’ feel for the shares ahead of them opening. The desks reaction to their food a lot better than the -2% share price move today as cost pressures were blamed for the weakness but the good news for all is an additional 150 still in the plans to open! Slightly different format to today’s Snapshot as there was on…