The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 28 May 2024

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Regardless of which side of the Atlantic you are on, today’s wake up was tougher than usual, with Memorial Day and Bank Holiday in the rearview we are back to Fed speakers dictating intraday movements! Case and point Neel Kashkari with his morning comments around robust wage growth, labor markets, odds of rate hike being low but not off table while not penciling in more than two cuts for this year (phew that was a lot). Net/net higher for longer remains the constant. Aside from Fed comments, we…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 24 May 2024

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The first long weekend of the summer (almost) is finally here and that means a lot of participants are not. And volumes reflected that (-21% versus the 20d)! But after yesterday’s PMI data spooked investors into taking profits (especially after the Fed minutes Wednesday), equities went back in the direction they have become accustomed to and closed higher. There was some economic data to watch for, and the final University of Michigan rose to 69.1 from the preliminary 67.7 reported two weeks ag…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 23 May 2024

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Investors were forced to navigate a multitude of data points today – remarkable, given one stock was expected to carry all of equities. NVIDIA (NVDA +9%) spiked after reporting another blowout set of numbers and most of tech reacted in kind. But even before the white-hot PMI’s later in the morning, there was underperformance in non-tech names. And when PMIs rose to 54.4 (51.2 expected), a 25-month high (!), it fuelled a spike in yields and underscored some of the worries set in motion by yester…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 22 May 2024

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We’ve all played the Bitcoin game, haven’t we? ‘If only I’d taken some of that bonus from years ago, and it didn’t even have to be a lot, I’d be worth millions!’ Well nobody laments that lost opportunity more than Laszlo Hanyecz. On this day 14 years ago, story has it Laszlo bought 2 large pizzas in Florida (b/c of course) for 10,000 BTC. At the time it was worth $41; today it would be $700mm. May 22nd will forever be known as Bitcoin Pizza day. Feel better about your own lack of investment? I…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 21 May 2024

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What a beautiful day here on 5th avenue in New York City. For the past few weeks, it was like we were living in London, but the sun is shining, the temperature is an ideal 75 degrees with a slight breeze all helping give way to weak volumes across US markets. Main US indexes traded sideways for most of the session but that didn’t stop the S&P 500 and Nasdaq from making new all-time highs despite more stocks being down than up on the day. Tech stocks were in focus today with headlines stemming…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 20 May 2024

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Equities with a mixed start to the week, though major indices finished in the green, there seemed to be a little exhaustion into the close. Volumes are still deflated with the SPX +22% below its 20-day average as well as the lack of leadership we are seeking. For majority of today’s session breadth seemed rather decent, with Information Technology leading the way, showing glimpses of leadership (though only a 37% up day in the S&P). All eyes are on Nvidia for Wednesday’s earnings and rightfully…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 17 May 2024

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Sell in May? Au contraire. Yesterday’s down day (a whole 21bps) was the worst for the S&P since the first of the month. It’s been quite a ride thus far and so today’s response to yesterday’s “move” was equally undramatic. It seems the path of least resistance remains to the upside for US equities and some notable levels were breached at the bell (albeit modestly) with the S&P500 closing above 5,300 while the Dow closed above 40,000. But the question top of mind is around the lack of clear leade…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 16 May 2024

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Today took a detour from the usual macro wagging of the tail, with Retail as the real tale (see what I did there? re-tail, real tale…). ANYWAY. Earnings from Walmart (WMT +7%), Under Armour (UAA -1.3%), Dillard’s (DDS -4.7%) and Canada Goose (GOOS +15.5%) gave voice to the efforts being made by the retailers to combat macro headwinds. Walmart, particularly, was able to impress with healthy earnings upside and a guidance bump. Both Dillard’s and Canada Goose also acknowledged the challenging en…

The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 15 May 2024

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Nothing like a mid-week broad based rally to help get everyone closer to the weekend. After three days of eye-watering low volume across US markets, CPI and Retail sales data stepped in to shake the frost off traders’ bones and breathe some life into the market. Two consecutive months of a stagnant CPI data had dwindled hopes of any rate cuts this year and been a headwind for equities recently, but a welcomed sequential decline in both Core and Headline CPI numbers sent the S&P 500, Dow Jones…