Happy Easter Monday! With most major European markets closed today, and within APAC Australia/New Zealand/Hong Kong closed last night, it left the US was left with rather light trading conditions. Given it is the start of a new month, we had a handful of data this morning, some of which sent us into the red. Today’s PMI survey continued to show good data trends whilst ISM came in above expectations resulting in the SPX and CCMP to come off session highs. While glancing at WIRP estimates intrada…

As we closed the books on another week, month and quarter, equities continued their journey higher, although today was subject to a bit of rangebound price action, suppressed volumes, and rotation dynamics. Despite the stutter step, the familiar narrative remains— the path of least resistance is higher thanks to a marked improvement in breadth, strong fundamentals (demonstrated by solid earnings reports), seemingly ever-lasting AI optimism, and of course the perpetual expectations for a rate…

The S&P opened higher this morning and traded mostly sideways for the session before rallying and closing at another all-time high. It was another day of gains for main US indexes despite volumes being lower for the 4th day in a row (S&P volume -11% vs 20 AVAT), rebounding after yesterday’s late session fade. The muted volumes did not affect S&P 500 breadth though, out of the 503 members in the S&P 500, 90% of them finished positive on the day. What was surprising was an underperformance from s…

Markets have been strolling along at quite the leisurely pace for a week that marks both month and quarter-end where main US indices are knocking on the door of double-digit gains with 75% of the year still yet to unfold. Equities were walking on the sunny side of the street up until 30mins to go, when they suddenly crossed the street and went from gains to losses in swift step. With no obvious catalyst for the change in tune, lighter volumes and a closing sell imbalance seemed to do be the m…

Indices performance today looked a bit like my March Madness bracket: red. I’m not sure a bit of profit taking on the back of last week’s strong performance in equities is comparable to my abysmal record in our office pool, but I digress. We are broadly in ‘wait and see’ mode ahead of PCE Friday with volumes notably down both overseas and on the home front. The sleepier start to the week was reflected in sector movements as well, Autos and Energy led the way though no single sector had a move o…

Whomever decided to create today’s market schedule must have been a basketball fan. Zero economic data, zero earnings (for today), zero Fed speakers (yes Powell and Barr spoke, but not monetarily), and zero conferences provided the best backdrop for those that are interested in March Madness (ie, lowest volume day THIS YEAR). It has been a busy week for the macro and Powell did not disappoint the bulls when the FOMC kept their three dot plot plan for 2024 and said they would slow QT at some poi…

Flight attendants – prepare for takeoff. We are again in flight and heading higher yet on impressive breadth after Captain Powell apparently provided a green light from the tower yesterday. All major indices saw follow-through strength today with the S&P clocking a 75% “up” day, and notably, the Russell leading the charge vs its larger cap index peers. As Americans, we are stereotypically a hopeful bunch, and thus, the soft-landing narrative has found itself front and center once again. A…

So what do we think….the FOMC meeting well received? With all major indices finishing in the green for another SPX all-time-high close after spending majority of the morning edging lower, I’d say so! Commentary of the Fed still being on track for a rate cut (penciling in three) reinvigorated traders, leaving rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, alongside body language from Powell during today’s FOMC meeting abated any sentiment to send us lower. With the Committee deciding it will be “appropriate to…

A pre-FOMC calm settled over markets today with muted moves on low volumes as investors wade through a concentrated calendar of central bank meetings and macroeconomic events. Indices finished flat to higher while yields slipped after a strong 20-year auction. Though tomorrow’s FOMC decision may prove to be a non-event with rates widely expected to remain unchanged for a 5th consecutive meeting, the spotlight is firmly on Powell’s press conference. Two months of warmer inflation data may not ma…

If you haven’t heard about the 5-day cleanse/fast I participated in last week, consider yourself lucky. You’d also be in the minority. I was a real health nut. But then the weekend came and the eating/drinking reverted to the mean…a little! After consecutive weeks of losses, the market looked to return to ‘normal’, and so far, so good. Although it was tech doing much of the heavy lifting. Market fundamentals weren’t looking so hot however as the equal-weight S&P was barely in the green with Na…