The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 5 July 2024

A bit of a head-fake to shake things up this morning as headline NFP came in ahead of expectations (206k versus 190k expected) amid a revision lower for both April and May. Though labor market data isn’t a zero-sum game, it’s worth contextualizing as the two prior months were revised lower by a total of 111k whereas the June data was only 16k ahead of consensus. Additionally, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% (vs 4.0% expected) and wage inflation down to 3.9%. Despite an initial (and mome…

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