The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 7 July 2023

A welcomed miss from nonfarm payrolls (209k vse 230k) this morning sent treasury rates lower and indexes higher for a brief few minutes before traders realized this miss (which was still an increase in jobs) will not be enough to knock Powell off his plan for two more rate hikes this year. CME data is showing 92 percent chance of a hike at the next meeting but some uncertainty if another will follow into year end. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6 percent while average hourly earnings YoY (+…

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