The View from 5th Avenue

The View at Two – 2 July 2020

“Roaring Back..” Those are Donald Trump’s words in regards to the economy. Indeed the government reports showed payrolls rose by 4.8m in June after an upwardly revised 2.7m gain in May. Markets responded with applause. The troubling thing though, is the market was coming off a bit first thing in the morning after Florida’s COVID numbers hit. It reminded investors that states making up half of the US population have retracted or rescinded their reopening plans. Unless corona slows, it may be hard to see improvements from here. Especially that jobless claims continue to rise, which seems to have been ignored. Further, Larry Kudlow’s words  “we are very unhappy with China” portend a worrisome set of circumstances ahead. If history is any indication, the S&P should go up anywhere between 15-22% this quarter, following its biggest quarterly gains since 1950. However, with dark clouds on the horizon, it’s up for debate. Either way, for today it seems US investors aren’t going to let anything ruin their long holiday weekend.  

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