The View from 5th Avenue

The View at Two – 8 October 2020

Money talks – Markets once again trading in the green. Yes, stimulus talks were stopped Tuesday afternoon via a tweet, but that was only until President Trump threw out his own bid. So now both sides are talking again, and stocks are still watching (Pelosi said no to a stand alone airline bailout, which hit markets earlier, only for them to recover). Stimulus is coming. When is the tough answer. With a new hurricane about to hit the South, Oil has moved back above $41 today, and this has put the Energy names in the outperformance category. But all of the indexes are faring well, and this has most sectors higher. Banks will be in the news next week as they start the earnings season (see below), but Morgan Stanley (MS +1.1%) got ahead and announced they would be buying Eaton Vance (EV +48.2%), and this just after the closed the E*Trade deal. Treasuries have seen their yields rise this week, but the 30-year was trying to break that trend today ahead of the 30-yr auction (yield current 1.56%). The auction had a lower bid-to-cover (2.29) versus the previous 12 (2.35), and had a higher dealer participation (23%). This will likely keep a lid on any more yield improvement for the day. The S&P needs to stay above Tuesday’s high of 3431.56 to keep the short term turn around positive, but the advance/decline line on the S&P 1500 is also encouraging for the bulls.

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