The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 17 June 2022

There’s really no nice way to say it – it was a week to forget but one we’ll likely long remember. Don’t let today’s quixotic move higher fool you; it was meager compared to the losses we saw the previous 4 days and volumes did little to suggest there was any genuine meaning behind it. The strings pulled by central banks have forever been calculated and deliberate ones so the actions seen this week rightly left markets shaken. The US benchmark saw the most modest of lifts while tech/growth far outpaced the field but a bit of covering into the long weekend after the last week plus’s drubbing likely the cause. There wasn’t much in the way of optimism from economic data (factory demand cooled, ind production missed) we saw this morning, with the conference board survey revealing more than 60% of CEOs believe a recession is on the way in 12-18 months’ time. Yields across the curve rose after Powell added to the Fed-speak lexicon with an “acute focus” on reigning in inflation; we’ll get more from him next week.

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