Last night I went to see the Broadway play Wicked, and it’s well worth a visit if you haven’t seen it yet. Great songs and of course the added nostalgic benefit of the beloved Wizard of Oz were sprinkled about. Most interesting was it’s completely different perspective on the story we thought we knew. Wall Street could use a bit of different perspective right now, with the last few investment banks piling on to an already pessimistic market this morning. (Talking their own book perhaps?) The AAII Bull Bear survey had the 2nd highest % of bears in 10 years and talk of a recession has a tone of when not if. And the PMI numbers we got earlier today, missing estimates and creeping ever closer to contraction territory, did little to dissuade from that notion. But such one-sidedness can lend itself towards outsized moves in the other direction and while this week has barely dented what’s happened year to date, it could at least be viewed as encouraging. Are we building a bit of a base, or being lulled into a false sense of security though? We have seen a bit of sideways pricing action the last week-plus and the S&P 1500 having a 50/50 split on the gainers vs losers further highlights investors indecision/hesitance. We are watching 3810/15 on the S&P, above that could trigger a rally to 4087 but trends remain down and while the benchmark did peek above 3800 today, it fell short of closing there.
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