The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 8 July 2022

Today was always going to be about NFPs, especially on the heels of four consecutive green days for the S&P. The higher than expected print sent futures sharply lower, as investors nibbled through the wider implications for the market. Yes it means the economy is still in decent shape. It also means that the Fed has a clear path to continuing to tighten/hike rates, which in turn means that companies will have to deal with it. Investors are now also pricing in a 98% probability of a 75bp hike in June, with the residual 2% no longer pricing in a 50bp hike, but rather a 100bp one.

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