The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 4 August 2022

Another day of indices largely being able to hold on to the previous days gains. That’s not to say the market’s performance today was remarkable on its own. Indices did struggle for direction as investors dealt with cooling jobs data, although the far more important Non-Farm Payrolls hit tomorrow. Earnings continued to dominate, with Alibaba (BABA, +1.88%) sales beating estimates and ConocoPhilips (COP, -1.57%) doing the same, although Eli Lilly (LLY, -2.56%) had to cut FY adj. EPS forecasts. Inflationary fears across the globe not going anywhere anytime soon, and the Fed continues to make sure that investors don’t look beyond the rate hikes – Mester today re-iterating that the Fed is resolved to curb inflation with rate hikes. Worth noting some medium term resistances which were in our sights this morning – while the CCMP and FANG+ are above the June highs, the S&P cash is the one to watch. 4177 is the number we have our eye on, 4200 for the S&P futures. The longer we remain unable to get past these levels, the more vulnerable markets could be to a retracement. Growth continues to help the markets with this rally, as highlighted by Redburn’s relative movers list: Apple has made a 12month relative high, and Amazon and Texas Instruments made 3 month relative highs.

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