The View from 5th Avenue

The View from 5th Avenue – 17 August 2022

Green was noticeably absent from the screen today as markets took a well-deserved pause from the recent rally. Based on the lack of volumes (SPX -15.5% vs 20d), as well as the fact that both the S&P and NDX failed to go below their support levels (4190 and 13k, respectively), the weakness felt fleeting. After all, 21% of the SPX still advanced and the selling was not elevated (using overall volume as an indicator), so there were no signals to indicate a permanent change to upward momentum. There was nothing sinister to instigate the fall which began with futures’ weakness pre-open. Retail sales data stagnated last month as we saw declines in auto and gas spending, but gains in other categories suggested spending still remains resilient. Net/net -- the number wasn't great, but TJX (+2.8%) and Lowe’s (+58bps) reporting better than expectations helped balance the weaker number a bit. Quite frankly, the most annoying move was of the meme-madness sort in Bed, Bath and Beyond, which was up another 12% (up almost 65% this week alone) defying all laws of physics. No comment.

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