Stocks have successfully remained optimistic as investors digest hawkish comments from Fed officials and await further clues from JP in Jackson Hole tomorrow. Today's data/headlines/quotes were all taken in stride, but further economic data this morning added some inconsistencies into the mix. GDP declined to 0.6% vse 0.7%, while Gross Domestic Income climbed 1.4% in Q2. These measures are supposed to be (roughly) equal, but the gap is particularly wide. It’s also worth noting that corporate profits increased at the fastest pace in the year, after falling for 3 months. Although inflation remains front of mind, and the busiest part of earnings season is behind us, there are still a handful of companies reporting. This morning brought Dollar Tree & Dollar General, both of which saw an increase in thrifty shoppers, as the consumer continues to be crunched. Separately, US-listed Chinese stocks are also back in the news, as Chinese Stimulus & progress on a regulatory hurdle gave the Golden Dragon Index it’s best day since May. As mentioned, contradictions around every corner! The NBER confirmed we're still not in a recession, but the likelihood of one certainly feels dependent on The Fed's next few moves. Until then, investors seem happy to wait and see with volumes better, but not robust, and the VIX down another 4.3%. Either way, all eyes will be on Jerome tomorrow, and it will certainly be an interesting end to a week that served as an exercise in futility.
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