T-minus 24 hours and markets are in full tizzy. How much the Fed will raise, and maybe even more important, what they will say afterwards, has investors feeling very defensive. The hawkish message out of Jackson Hole, a still strong jobs market, and a CPI that hasn’t shifted, is making this meeting a tough call. Most expect 75bps and “higher for longer”, but the outlier would be 100bps. Does that mean 4.5% is the terminal rate? And if it is, when will the Fed get there?
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